####018004252#### FXUS64 KJAN 032000 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 300 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon, and this will continue before ending from west to east early this evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will kick off another round of shower's and storms. With a little better lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/ .DISCUSSION...Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next week remains similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early into mid week, potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri periods, then followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the increasing warmth will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge influence with the ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting eastward as we see a powerful system dive across the Rockies and Central Plains. We will be on the western periphery of the low level ridge/high and that will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to bring in moisture and those well above normal lower level temps. Additionally, we will see capping in play which will keep rain/storm chances more in check. There's some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed, but this is more due to model variability and I expect this to lower some. The exception could be in the far N, where more proximity to the better lift could allow for better chances. As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift) continue to show up. I'll also add, later Wed night is a period to watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area. Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on wind/hail. In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to the area. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this afternoon and this will continue through much of the day as showers/thunderstorms move across the area. The bulk of the storms will move east of the area this evening, but expect stratus/fog to develop overnight after 09-10Z with sites becoming IFR/LIFR. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 64 86 66 / 80 10 40 30 Meridian 85 63 88 65 / 70 30 40 30 Vicksburg 81 64 86 67 / 80 10 40 30 Hattiesburg 84 65 88 66 / 50 10 30 10 Natchez 80 64 86 65 / 60 10 40 30 Greenville 80 66 84 67 / 60 20 40 40 Greenwood 81 65 84 67 / 80 30 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/CME/ ####018004384#### FXUS63 KPAH 032001 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue this weekend and through next week. - Unsettled weather pattern through next week with scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday, and more widespread storms Monday night through Thursday. - Potential exists for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Upper level troughing will remain to our North and West with several disturbances advancing through the region helping to bring scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. This afternoon a weak disturbance is moving across the area helping to generate some scattered shower activity. Wind fields aloft are weak, so not expecting much any organization this afternoon and into tonight. The loss of forcing, and nocturnal stabilization should lead to mostly dry conditions tonight. A northern stream disturbance moves across the northern plains Saturday into Sunday. A few weak impulses are progged to move across the region leading to scattered showers and storms within a moist and unstable airmass. Overall, the lack of shear should keep severe potential low, although an isolated strong to severe storm is possible across SEMO Saturday afternoon/evening. Our attention then turns toward a few days of more active weather Sunday into the middle of next week. A more robust shortwave lifts from the southern plains with a weak boundary draped across the Quad State Sunday night into Monday. Better synoptic scale forcing combined with an unstable boundary layer should lead to more widespread showers and storms during this period. Unlike today and Saturday, mid level flow will be slightly stronger as a 30-35 knot mid level jet noses into the area. Deep layer shear approaches 30 knots which may lead to some organized convection, although the current thinking is that these potential storms will be more isolated in nature. The upper levels amplify Monday night into Tuesday as a sharp upper trough digs into the northern plains. Shortwave ridging developing over the region may keep things more isolated Monday into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be breezy as low level winds increase associated with strong mid/upper level flow. Winds could approach 30 mph during the afternoon. Still need to watch for severe weather potential Tuesday into Thursday associated with a more amplified upper level pattern and a good overlap of shear and instability. Deep layer troughing will develop across the Rockies and move into the plains states. Still some questions on when the greatest time-frame for severe weather but there seems to be an increasing signal on the Wed-Thu time- frame. An area of low pressure develops across OK/TX and lifts northeast into Missouri. Increasing divergent flow aloft will overspread an increasingly moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints likely approaching or exceeding 70 degrees. Increasing southwest flow aloft will translate to increased deep layer shear for organized severe weather. All modes of severe weather appear possible at this time. Later forecasts will be able to fine tune timing of severe weather. Additionally, will also need to keep an eye on flooding concerns with several rounds of convection possible through next week. Drier weather arrives Friday post fropa and with increasing zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR cigs will improve this afternoon at most sites. Isolated to scattered SHRA expected this afternoon with CIG and Visb restrictions possible near any of this activity. TSRA appear possible but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. Winds relax overnight with a very moist boundary layer leading to fog development. IFR is forecast for all sites by morning. Fog will scatter out shortly after sunrise with VFR expected the rest of Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD ####018005981#### FXUS61 KGYX 032001 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 401 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through Saturday, with increasing onshore flow this weekend. Thickening clouds, cooler temperatures and rain showers are expected by Sunday as the high drifts north. Clearing likely not coming until Monday behind a passing cold front. Warmer and sunnier conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cu field over the region along with some passing cirrus. There continues to be breaks in this cloud cover though, which has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s in most locations, although mainly in the 50s along the coast due to weak onshore flow. It will continue to be a dry afternoon and evening with temperatures cooling into the 50s areawide. A positively tilted h5 ridge axis will remain overhead tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies but continued dry conditions. Patchy fog is possible overnight depending on cloud cover but the latest HREF suggests this likely won't bring visibilities below 1 mile in most locations. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s across the north to the lower and middle 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The mid-level ridge axis remains overhead on Saturday with sfc low pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Partly sunny skies during the first half of the day will likely become mostly cloudy by the afternoon as a weak vorticity maximum crosses. Light and variable winds combined with daytime heating will likely result in a seabreeze. Highs will range from the lower to middle 60s across the interior with cooler 50s along the coast. Surface high pressure will begin to retreat to the northeast Saturday night but the h5 ridge axis will remain overhead. Other than a stray shower over western NH towards dawn it will be another dry night with patchy fog once again possible. Low temperatures will primarily be into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Unsettled weather expected for the second half of the weekend as a cold front nears Sunday and passes Monday morning. High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the latter part of Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as broad low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Details: Onshore flow will be underway Sunday with mostly cloudy skies. Skies will be more overcast to start the day across NH, mainly as the area sees greater moisture advection ahead of approaching cold front. There is some uncertainty on daytime highs Sunday, mainly due to this onshore flow and increasing cloud cover. Went on the cooler side of guidance for now, but current forecast spread for high temps varies by 5 to 7 degrees across much of the area. Rain will arrive with the cold front in the evening, beginning as showers and then more persistent rain overnight. Rainfall amounts should remain around a quarter inch or less, but some showers could enhance local amounts higher than this value. The associated cold front begins to lose its deeper moisture as it tracks into New England, as probabilities for greater precipitation lie to the west. Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early Monday morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by mid morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying through the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures will be in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s possible for southern NH and into southern Maine's interior. Tuesday follows up as warm and dry, before another period of unsettled weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are likely overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions, and have tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a chance of rain to close out the week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through much of tonight, although pockets of MVFR to locally IFR restrictions are possible late due to lower ceilings and FG. Mainly VFR conditions are then likely after 15Z Saturday, although pockets of MVFR are possible, especially at coastal TAF sites. Ceilings will then gradually lower again Saturday night with potential patchy fog. Light and variable winds tonight through Saturday morning will become southeasterly later Saturday before becoming light and variable again Saturday night. No LLWS is expected. Long Term...MVFR skies start the day Sunday, perhaps lifting to VFR in the afternoon. However, general trend will be back to MVFR/IFR Sun night into Monday morning. Rain and fog may cause vis restrictions overnight. Ceilings should improve to VFR at all terminals into Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds through at least Saturday night with high pressure over the waters. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly on Saturday. Long Term...Conditions should remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday, but there may be periods of visibility restriction Sunday and Sunday night in fog amid onshore flow. Winds increase overnight as a cold front nears. The cold front will pass over the waters Monday morning, bringing better vis conditions through Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs SHORT TERM...Tubbs LONG TERM...Cornwell ####018004375#### FXUS63 KBIS 032002 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are low chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers through the day, mainly across the northern and eastern North Dakota. - Temperatures are forecast to warm up through the weekend, with windy conditions on Sunday. - Chances for rain return late Sunday night and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper level low located over southern Ontario will continue to push eastward. Wrap around showers will continue across the northern half of the state. Instability is a bit lacking this afternoon for thunderstorms, but a rumble or two is still possible. Showers will decrease later this evening as instability from daytime heating decreases. Overcast skies from low cumulus has resulted in below normal temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Breezy winds are being observed across the state from a surface pressure gradient from the aforementioned upper low. A surface trough continues to push across the central half of the state turning winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the southwest as surface high pressure passes through the region. High temperatures Saturday will begin to trend upward to near normal as surface high pressure clears out the region and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day as temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s to 70s out west due to the upper level ridge pushing into the region. In addition a strong surface low will move into eastern Montana with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to windy conditions across western and south central North Dakota. Forecast soundings at this time have around 45 kts mixing down to the surface which will result in advisory level winds. This short term warm up will be short lived as another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS. A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1 inch rain across the Northern half of the state where the deformation band will likely set up. PWATs are pretty impressive for this event with values around 1.1 inches. Heavy rain is possible from stronger storms. However, there are some areas that could see significantly less rain depending on where the dry slot sets up. Thunderstorms are possible as the system first moves into the region. Instability around 500 j/kg which continues to decrease, however 0-500 mb shear is around 40 kts. CSU Machine Learning Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s through the middle of the week. After this system washes out near normal temperatures will continue until potential ridge moves into the region late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR conditions will continue for portions of North Dakota this afternoon due to low clouds. Clouds will slowly rise to VFR across the southern half of the state this afternoon before they dissipate later this evening. Breezy northwest winds will impact all terminals this afternoon with winds decreasing by the evening hours. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon across the state with showers diminishing by sunset. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson ####018005017#### FXUS64 KLUB 032004 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 304 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong differential heating boundary present across the area today and will be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+ J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast, potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado, especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the forecast area late this evening before Midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding. While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area by midnight. The active weather seen over the past several days will finally begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such, any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and dry conditions to prevail through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus decks have begun to break at LBB with VFR conditions returning, while PVW/CDS continue to linger in MVFR to IFR conditions due to low ceilings and will likely persist through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but are contingent on several variables. At this time, LBB has the highest chances for vicinity thunder this afternoon and early evening. However, amendments will be made as confidence increases on location and timing of storms this afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold front that will pass south through all three sites tomorrow morning/mid-morning. Low stratus, MVFR ceilings will return again as they fill in behind the front tomorrow morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...11