####018002075#### FXUS65 KMSO 032005 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .DISCUSSION...Saturday, High pressure will bring a pretty spectacular spring weather with lots of sun and temperatures hovering around 70 degrees. Southeasterly winds will strengthen in the afternoon with gusts 15-20 mph. Take it all in tomorrow because we will take a disappointing turn back to wet weather, colder than normal temperatures AND snow accumulations in the mountains. A mid level low pressure system will meander its way across and around the Northern Rockies Sunday and bring widespread rains. Snow levels will begin to lower Sunday evening and eventually lower to around 4000-4500 feet by Monday night. The low pressure system will persist over the region through Tuesday morning and produce significant precip. Higher elevations, especially above 5500-6000 feet will receive accumulating snows. The exact track of these mid level lows has always been difficult to pin point even 48 hours in advance, however we have high confidence that areas with best snow potential will be across central Idaho, Lost Trail pass into the higher valleys of southwest Montana (Georgetown Lake). Any road impacts from snow will primarily occur at night and the early morning hours and should be limited. The rest of the week continues to look wet and cooler than normal through Wednesday. Models are becoming more consistent showing a ridge building across the west late next week into Mothers Day weekend. This will equate to warm and dry days. && .AVIATION...Some mid level cumulus clouds will diminish over the region this evening as high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will exist at all terminals through 04/2300z. A southeast wind will begin at KBTM, KMSO, KHRF and KSMN with gusts to 20 mph after 04/1800z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$ ####018011779#### FXUS65 KABQ 032008 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 208 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather is possible this afternoon in far eastern New Mexico and again tomorrow afternoon and evening in the southeast. Dry, warm, and windy weather begins Sunday and persists through Wednesday, creating widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The 1pm SPC mesoanalysis across northeast NM shows an area of low level convergence with MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear values close to 30 kt, lifted indices near -6C, and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Convective initiation along the I-25 corridor between Las Vegas and Raton will develop upstream into this airmass thru late afternoon where SPC still has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. 'Severe Weather Outlook' timing shows the main threat window for damaging wind and large hail impacts between about 2pm and 8pm from Clayton to Clovis. These storms will move east/northeast into TX after sunset. Low level return flow then deepens westward across eastern NM thru midnight followed by a strong backdoor cold front overnight. Northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected thru sunrise across northeast and east-central NM. This boundary will allow a few more showers and perhaps a couple storms to develop overnight, along with widespread low stratus for eastern NM by sunrise. There is high likelihood the front will also push thru gaps in the central mt chain and allow for a period of perhaps moderate canyon winds in ABQ. Gusts up to 50 mph may occur immediately downwind of Tijeras Canyon. The focus then shifts to a potential second round of severe weather across southeast NM Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will veer out of the east then southeast thru the day across eastern NM with the deepest moisture and instability persists over Chaves, Roosevelt, and perhaps Curry counties. A 70-80kt upper level speed max will approach from the southwest and allow bulk shear values to increase over 45kt. The latest SPC outlook now has a Slight Risk for severe storms over parts of Roosevelt and Chaves counties. The main threat window will occur between 2pm and 8pm with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat again. There is however a small tornado probability in this area compared to today. The Marginal Risk area was also extended farther west where a few strong storms may occur around Santa Rosa to Tucumcari and Ft Sumner. Meanwhile, sufficient mid level moisture with low level southeasterly flow, orographics, and daytime heating across northern NM will allow for a few showers and storms to develop during the afternoon. This activity is more on the wet/dry side and will be capable of producing brief rain with strong gusty winds. Showers and storms may continue through late Saturday evening across eastern NM followed by more low stratus and perhaps some patchy fog. Moderate gap winds will return to the Rio Grande Valley as well with potential for gusts up to 50 mph again below Tijeras Canyon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow takes over Sunday out ahead of a trough, increasing wind speeds and dropping dewpoints. Despite winds trending down somewhat, patchy blowing dust is still likely across the lower elevations of western and central NM. On the other hand, winds have trended stronger during the Sunday night/early Monday time frame along a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the state from west to east. Moisture looks to be just deep enough for some showers across the northwest along the front, but precipitation amounts are expected to remain below 0.1". Monday will be both drier and cooler than Sunday in the wake of the front, with temps a few to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal averages. The strongest winds on Monday will focus along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains thanks to the development of a ~996 sfc low in the TX Panhandle. Troughing hangs around over the High Plains Monday through Wednesday, allowing zonal flow to persist across central and northern NM. 700 mb winds won't be anomalously strong, but the combination of sunny skies and unidirectional westerly flow will efficiently mix stronger winds down to the surface during the afternoon hours. High temps each day will hover near seasonal averages. It looks like the critical fire weather pattern will finally break down late in the week as the High Plains trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region. That being said, guidance is in disagreement on how quickly this transitions will occur. Storm chances will favor the northeast corner of the state late in the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The primary aviation impacts the next 24 hrs will be storms over northeast NM this afternoon, a sharp northerly wind shift across eastern NM tonight, MVFR low cigs and light showers overnight and Saturday morning across eastern NM, then strong canyon winds at KABQ around sunrise. High-based showers and storms will develop along the I-25 corridor between KRTN and KLVS by 20Z then shift east toward KCAO and KTCC by 00Z before exiting into TX thru 03Z. The strongest wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt are likely from KCAO to KTCC between 1am and 5am followed by low cig development in the wake of the front east of the central mt chain. Gap winds are expected to peak at KABQ near 15Z with an Airport Weather Warning highly likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Marginal critical fire weather conditions will continue over western NM thru Saturday while eastern NM sees greater chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall. A mixture of wet/dry showers and storms is possible for the northern mts Saturday. Slightly better moisture trending into this area may allow for some small wetting footprints rather than the dry storms previously expected. However, activity along the western periphery within the Jemez and San Juan/ Tusas range may be drier. An extended period of critical to locally extreme fire weather is expected to begin Sunday as an upper level trough progresses slowly east across the southern Rockies. The strongest winds are focused on Sunday with gusts of 45 to 55 mph with single digit humidity and high Haines. A cold front moving thru Sunday night and Monday may bring some brief relief to far northwest NM however the rest of the area will stay windy with single digit humidity. More critical fire weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday before a potential pattern change toward lighter winds and higher humidity arrives for parts of the area Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 78 42 75 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 74 34 72 / 0 30 5 0 Cuba............................ 36 71 38 73 / 0 20 5 0 Gallup.......................... 34 75 36 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 71 39 71 / 0 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 74 34 75 / 0 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 74 47 76 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 41 71 42 71 / 0 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 77 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 67 33 67 / 0 40 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 67 46 71 / 0 30 10 0 Pecos........................... 40 66 41 72 / 0 30 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 64 39 67 / 0 40 20 0 Red River....................... 29 60 32 63 / 0 50 30 5 Angel Fire...................... 24 60 28 65 / 0 40 30 10 Taos............................ 31 71 35 72 / 0 30 20 0 Mora............................ 34 63 36 70 / 0 30 30 10 Espanola........................ 43 77 45 78 / 0 30 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 70 46 74 / 0 30 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 73 44 77 / 0 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 75 50 79 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 77 52 81 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 79 49 83 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 78 48 81 / 0 10 5 0 Belen........................... 46 81 46 84 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 79 48 82 / 0 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 80 45 83 / 0 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 45 79 47 82 / 0 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 80 44 83 / 0 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 48 73 48 78 / 0 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 78 49 81 / 0 10 5 0 Socorro......................... 51 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 67 46 72 / 0 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 43 70 44 75 / 0 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 43 70 44 77 / 0 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 71 39 77 / 0 10 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 64 40 73 / 0 10 20 0 Mountainair..................... 43 70 44 75 / 0 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 72 42 75 / 0 5 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 79 49 79 / 0 5 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 71 46 72 / 0 10 20 5 Capulin......................... 38 60 40 68 / 10 10 20 10 Raton........................... 37 67 39 74 / 5 20 20 10 Springer........................ 39 67 41 75 / 0 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 38 64 40 73 / 0 20 30 10 Clayton......................... 41 63 44 74 / 30 5 30 20 Roy............................. 44 65 45 73 / 10 10 40 20 Conchas......................... 51 71 51 81 / 10 10 60 10 Santa Rosa...................... 49 68 49 78 / 5 10 40 10 Tucumcari....................... 49 68 49 79 / 20 20 60 20 Clovis.......................... 51 70 51 79 / 10 30 60 10 Portales........................ 52 72 52 81 / 5 40 60 10 Fort Sumner..................... 49 73 50 81 / 10 20 50 10 Roswell......................... 55 80 55 87 / 0 20 40 0 Picacho......................... 48 75 49 83 / 0 10 20 0 Elk............................. 46 79 47 81 / 0 10 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>122-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42 ####018006546#### FXUS61 KRLX 032008 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 408 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM Friday... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 129 PM Friday... As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present. Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe. However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions. Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday... More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday... The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes. Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM Friday... Widespread VFR conditions, ahead of an approaching cold front, will continue across all sites through at least 00Z. Meanwhile, showers and storms will develop and produce MVFR conditions along their path, starting across the Middle Ohio valley, and spreading east into WV through tonight. Unlimited ceilings will gradually descend to 5,000 feet by late afternoon or evening across PKB, HTS ans CRW, and then spread east across the rest of sites through tonight. Increasing moisture will saturate the column allowing for MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly across the higher elevations of our eastern mountains overnight into early Saturday morning. Light winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail through this evening, becoming light and variable, or even calm over protected river valleys overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the forecast. Periods of IFR visibility may be possible with the heavier shower or storm. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H L M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ