####018006007#### FXUS65 KVEF 032020 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 120 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system dropping down from the Pacific Northwest will move across the region Saturday and Sunday bringing widespread strong winds and much cooler temperatures. High elevation snow in the southern Sierra Saturday will spread across parts of southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday leading to a dusting of snow in the mountains. Improving conditions are expected Monday though temperatures will stay below a little below normal much of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night. Tranquil weather will continue through tonight then winds will increase significantly Saturday morning through the afternoon as a cold upper low digs over northern California/northwest Nevada. This system could be be seen on recent satellite loops off the Pacific Northwest Coast and looks vigorous with a clear cold core surrounded by a substantial moisture plume rounding its base. Model ensembles are in good agreement at tracking the center of the closed low across northern/central Nevada Saturday night and Sunday before opening it up as it pulls away to the Rockies Sunday night. This will place the base of the low and the area of strongest winds directly over our region. The main impact for our region will be widespread strong to high winds. The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Inyo, Nye, Esmeralda and western Clark counties...including the Spring Mountains/Red Rock Canyon. The latest high res model cross sections indicate the potential for at least 60 mph downslope winds in the Owens Valley and Saturday evening between 00z and 06Z, and in the east facing slopes of the Spring Mountains between 06Z and 15Z Sunday. Gusts near the peaks of 70-80 mph are indicated. Wind Advisories were issued for the rest of Clark, Lincoln, Mohave and San Bernardino counties where gusts of 40- 55 mph will be common. Winds will decrease late Sunday afternoon and evening on the back side of the exiting trough. Precipitation will begin in the southern Sierra Saturday afternoon then spread across central and southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday. Up to 2" of snow is forecast for Aspendell, and up to 12" near the Sierra crest above 10000 feet. Snow levels are forecast to drop to near 5000 feet across central and southern Nevada by Sunday morning when probabilities for precipitation range from 30-60% between the Spring Mountains and Rachel and Pioche. 1-2" of snow will be possible for the mountains of northern Lincoln County. 1" of snow or less can be expected for upper Kyle and Lee Canyons in the Spring Mountains and only a dusting for Rachel and Pioche. Temperatures will start to cool across the northern areas on Saturday with little change over the Mojave Desert region. Highs then drop 15-20 degrees areawide on Cinco de Mayo. This will be exceptionally cool for early May. In fact, the forecast high of 67 for Las Vegas Sunday is only two degrees warmer than our low maximum record of 65 set on May 5, 1973. .LONG TERM....Monday through Thursday. As the weekend system moves out, our area will be left under mostly zonal flow with a touch of a NW component. This pattern looks to linger through most, if not all, of the work week as persistent troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across the area. We'll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Thursday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds of 10-15kts are expected to develop again this afternoon and continue into the early evening. Winds should fall below 10kts by mid-evening and remain less than 10kts through 15Z Saturday morning. After that, increasing southwest winds are forecast, with speeds increasing to above 20kts by late morning. Winds will continue to increase Saturday afternoon and evening, with a greater than 60% chance of gusts in excess of 45kts developing by tomorrow evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday, but gusts over 30kts will remain likely through at least 00Z Monday. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF periods, although an increase in clouds AOA 15kft AGL is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Las Vegas area TAF sites will follow similar trends to KLAS, with gusts over 30kts developing by early Saturday afternoon. KBIH will light northerly winds of less than 12kts through Saturday morning. Winds will increase after 16Z, with westerly winds over 35kts possible at KBIH after 20Z, and gusts over 50kts will be possible along the eastern slopes of the Sierra late Saturday afternoon into evening. Westerly winds will continue at KDAG with gusts over 30kts likely by Saturday morning, increasing to greater than 40kts by Saturday afternoon. In the CRV, light southerly winds will persist into tonight before increasing Saturday morning. Gusts over 30kts are likely at KEED and KIFP after 18Z tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period, although an increase in clouds AOA 12kft AGL is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening at KBIH and Vegas area sites. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018006220#### FXUS64 KEPZ 032021 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 221 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of the period. The winds will become breezy to windy Sunday and continue on into Monday. The temperatures will remain at and above the normal for most of the area though the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently, the winds are light to low-end breezy with sunny skies and the temperatures on the warm side. For tonight, conditions will be quiet with the winds becoming light and variable. The skies will increase in cloudiness as a weak shortwave moves on by from far Southwest. Due to this, the low temperatures on Saturday morning will be above the normal. For Saturday, another quiet day will be in store. The winds will be similar to that of today; however, there might just be a few passing clouds due to the gradual passage of the shortwave. The high temperatures in the afternoon will be on the warm side. By Sunday, a trough will dig across the Intermountain West, which will develop a lee cyclone across eastern Wyoming. Even though this is not a great area to develop windy conditions, a 700mb jet stream will move across areas north of the El Paso and Hudspeth counties and with some gradient in place, the winds will become breezy to windy. As of now, the winds look to be below the criteria. Conditions will be dry; thus, fire weather conditions will be of concerns by then. For the rest of the period, the winds will be breezy to at times windy as we stay under a dry westerly flow aloft. There will be a series of disturbances passing to our north while rotating across a positively tilted longwave trough, that will not bring any precipitation to our area. Monday will be the day with the strongest winds for the work week with fire weather conditions continuing on that day. The high temperatures for El Paso will be in upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW250. There will be lots of SKC. The winds will be from the southwest and light to breezy (10 to 15 kts) with gust up to 25 kts through 01Z. The winds will become less breezy thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 For today and Saturday, conditions will be quiet with the winds light to breezy. The min RHs will be in the single digits except for in the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will continue for the start of next week with the winds becoming breezy to windy. Due to this, fire weather conditions on Sunday will be critical to extreme across Southwest and South-Central Mexico. For Monday,strong winds will move across West Texas with critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected. The min RHs will continue to be in the single digits by then. For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be dry with breezy winds and above normal temperatures. Fire weather concerns by then will be near to critical to critical. The min RHs on Saturday will be below 10% across much of area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be between 10 and 20%. The min RHs on Sunday will decrease slightly across the area, but will significantly decrease across the Sacramento Mountains by around 5%. The ventilation rates will be mostly excellent this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 85 52 86 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 55 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 64 40 63 / 0 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 53 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 89 52 89 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 53 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 74 42 75 / 0 10 10 0 Mescalero 45 75 44 74 / 0 10 10 0 Timberon 43 73 40 73 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 46 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira ####018005254#### FXUS65 KBOI 032023 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 223 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Dry, warmer, and increasingly windy weather overnight and Saturday ahead of an approaching north Pacific cold front. Southeast through southwest winds will increase in southern CWA zones Saturday, reaching 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph, enough for a Wind Advisory in the Upper Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley, and the southern half of Harney County. These winds will help boost temps to near 70 degrees Saturday in the southern Idaho valleys, and 60s in the rest of Idaho, but only 50s and 60s in Oregon as rain will begin there around midday. A deep upper low in the north Pacific will come inland along the OR/CA border late Saturday then due east along the southern OR border Saturday night and southern Idaho border Sunday. This is an ideal track for pcpn in our CWA. The rain will be moderate to heavy late Saturday through Saturday night as the cold front moves eastward across our CWA. Totals will be .50 to 1.25 inch in the mountains, and .30 to .60 inch in the valleys. Snow level will drop sharply behind the cold front all the way to valley floors in Oregon, and 3500 to 4200 feet MSL in western Idaho Sunday morning. But by then most of the pcpn will be ending so snow totals will only be a couple inches, except above 7000 feet where a foot may fall. Behind the cold front Sunday's high temps will be some 20 degrees lower than on Saturday, only in the 30s and 40s in the mountains and 40s to lower 50s in the valleys. Sunday will also be windy but not as windy as Saturday, and from the west or northwest. Lighter rain and snow showers will continue Sunday night as moisture wraps around the eastward-moving upper low. Thunderstorms were taken out of the forecast, except for a 15 to 20 percent chance in southern Twin Falls County Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Northwest flow aloft will prevail as a deep low moves eastward out of the area. Embedded in the flow, another trough will move into the area late Monday and early Tuesday. As this trough moves into already moist and cold air, it will extend the chances (50-70%) of precip through the early parts of the long term. With snow levels still between 5000-6000 ft MSL, a chance for mtn valley mixed precip will exist, while mtns continue to favor snow. At the same time, Monday afternoon instability supports a slight chance of thunderstorms in the W-Central Mtns of Idaho and the ID/NV border. Precipitation chances will taper off between Tuesday and Wednesday as the trough exits the area, but a slight chance for showers will remain over central Idaho through Thursday morning. Models continue to agree on a period of calmer weather kicking off on Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure builds north of our area. The exact position of the high varies, but the forecast remains the same: warmer, drier, calmer by the end of next week. Temps will rise from 10-15 degrees below normal on Tuesday to near normal on Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION...VFR with scattered mid and high level clouds through early Sat morning. Sat/12z a north-south oriented band of moderate precipitation begins to enter Harney county. Winds at 2000ft will increase significantly as it approaches, and as sfc winds lag behind a 6-10 hour LLWS threat exists at TAF sites NW of MUO and in SE OR. Surface winds: Becoming SE 10-20 kt, winds increasing Sat morning to SE 15-25 kt gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR through the period, clouds generally building. LLWS threat exists Sat/06z through Sat/15z as surface winds struggle to keep up with rapidly increasing 2000ft winds. The timing of the LLWS threat may not be exact, but should cover the entire period of concern. Winds becoming SE 10-15 kt Friday afternoon. Winds are set to increase significantly early Sat morning to SE 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. Weekend Outlook...A band of widespread precipitation will move into SE Oregon mid-morning Saturday, then into SW Idaho Saturday afternoon and will continue across the region through Sunday. High confidence (<100%) for rain at all sites as the precip band moves through. A 20% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in s-central Idaho. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL, lowering to 4000-5000 ft Sunday. Lowered snow levels on Sunday means a switch to mixed precip in mtn valleys and snow in mtns. IFR and widespread mountain obscuration Saturday night through Sunday. Surface winds: SE 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt Saturday afternoon, W 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Saturday IDZ014-016. OR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday ORZ061. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM