####018007296#### FXUS64 KAMA 032031 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 331 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Morning clouds have begun to clear out, with partly cloudy skies being observed for the northern and western Panhandles, while the southeastern TX Panhandle remains cloudy. Starting to see on satellite a cumulus field trying to grow vertically in eastern New Mexico near Tucumcari, and to a lesser extent the Texas Panhandle, suggesting some instability that is still inhibited by a cap. With much of the afternoon left, it's becoming more plausible that the cap could be breached in eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles and at least a few thunderstorms will be able to develop later as the dryline mixes east. If so, MLCAPE values between 1000- 2000 J/kg are possible in the western Panhandles along with 30-40 kts effective shear, suggesting any thunderstorm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can't be ruled out in the western Panhandles later in the afternoon through the early evening, but seems unlikely at this time. It's possible that any thunderstorm that can develop would begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable airmass in the central Texas Panhandle this evening. There is a signal that additional thunderstorms will be able to develop in the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening but the signal is rather weak among the CAMs. Tonight, a squall line is expected to develop in western Kansas along a cold front. Current expectation is that it will produce an outflow boundary that advances ahead and chokes off the access to unstable air and weakens before it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, this cold front will make its way through the Panhandles tonight, and it's possible that a moderately strong and moist southerly LLJ will ascend above the cold front and help develop showers and thunderstorms. If so, there may be enough elevated instability for the threat of overnight large hail. With that said, the CAMs are not at all excited about the potential for rain tonight while the global models are. NBM seems to be siding with the global models by giving 50-80% PoPs. Feel as though this is too aggressive right now given CAM agreement and underwhelming upper-level support, thus have decreased PoPs to generally 20-50% tonight. Tomorrow, the Panhandles will be behind the cold front and the surface winds turn from easterly to southeasterly. Clouds should once again be prevalent across the area but perhaps may break up some in the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach western Texas in the afternoon, but it appears the better forcing for ascent and moisture will be located to the south of the Panhandles. There is a chance that some rain and embedded thunder will make its way up into the southern Texas Panhandle as a result of some more significant thunderstorm activity outside of the CWA, but for now, it doesn't look to be a widespread rain event or much of a beneficial rain event. Once again, NBM is quite aggressive with the PoPs tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Have opted to decrease the rain chances in general, especially in the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening. Still feel PoPs are still too high tomorrow night but will leave it for now. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering slight chance to chance pops Sunday morning will quickly diminish from west to east by afternoon as the upper level shortwave trof moves east of the region. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper level low pressure storm system slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by the latest short and medium range models indicates more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for most of the OK and TX Panhandles. The far eastern zones may retain just enough moisture for a long enough time frame ahead of the eastward moving dryline Monday morning into the afternoon hours to warrant a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. NBM pop values for that area look reasonable and were included in the grids. Winds may approach or exceed advisory criteria across parts of the western and central sections on Monday due to the rather steep pressure gradient. Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by passage of another cold front Wednesday night which will lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Medium range models and associated ensembles are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 IFR to MVFR ceilings are present over KAMA and KDHT but should gradually rise through the afternoon to VFR. A thunderstorm is possible at KAMA and KDHT later this afternoon through tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Low-level wind shear is expected briefly at KGUY just ahead of the cold front, from 06z to 09z. A cold front moves in tonight and changes winds to the north. A return to MVFR ceilings is possible at KAMA in the morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Depending on how much rain falls through the weekend and where such rainfall occurs will dictate any fire weather concerns early next week. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance and rainfall forecasts, elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop across much of the western and central sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity values along with the possibility of dry fuels and little greenup in locations that have not had much rain during the past several weeks. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 50 68 51 74 / 30 30 60 20 Beaver OK 48 70 49 75 / 50 20 40 30 Boise City OK 42 65 44 76 / 40 10 20 20 Borger TX 51 72 52 78 / 20 30 50 20 Boys Ranch TX 49 71 50 80 / 20 20 50 20 Canyon TX 49 69 51 75 / 30 30 60 20 Clarendon TX 53 68 53 72 / 30 40 60 30 Dalhart TX 44 68 45 76 / 20 10 40 20 Guymon OK 45 68 47 75 / 40 10 30 20 Hereford TX 50 69 51 77 / 20 30 60 20 Lipscomb TX 51 69 51 75 / 40 30 60 30 Pampa TX 51 68 51 74 / 20 30 60 30 Shamrock TX 54 69 53 73 / 40 40 60 40 Wellington TX 55 71 54 73 / 40 50 60 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...52 ####018003503#### FXUS64 KMEG 032032 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 332 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7 days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn't produce much convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime heating. Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week. This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless, went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region. Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week, as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day 5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air to the region for next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TSRA potential has decreased at MEM given a weakening upstream MCV and stabilizing effects of -RA and cloud cover. However, expect scattered SHRA to increase in coverage over north central and northeast MS, aided by surface heating and convergence along the northern periphery of an MCS over central MS. VFR over east central AR should spread into the MEM by late afternoon, and continue through the late evening inbound push. Clearing aloft and weak surface winds will favor low stratus formation at all TAF sites prior to 12Z. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB ####018004907#### FXUS64 KLCH 032032 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 332 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Area radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading across the region from the west. Most of today's precip has fallen across SE TX and SW LA, with area mesonet stations showing around 0.75-2.00" of rain has fallen in these regions. CAMs have largely handled today's system poorly however, the HRRR seems to have gotten a better handle on it over the last couple of runs and continues to show most of this activity ending between 6 and 8 PM this evening. Overnight, dry weather is expected along with another round of patchy fog, especially across those areas that saw a good bit of rain today. Moving into the weekend, rain chances continue. Tomorrow, another shortwave is expected to pass overhead and initialize scattered showers by the late morning hours. POPs tomorrow are only in the 20-40% range, with better chances north of I-10, and overall coverage should be much less than the last couple of days. Rain chances then ramp up again for the second half of the weekend as a second, more robust, shortwave slides overhead and passes a bit further to the south that Saturday's shortwave. This may bring a similar set up to today's convection, with elevated rain chances in the 40-60% range on tap area-wide. Fortunately, no severe weather is anticipated this weekend however, we will have to keep an eye on the flooding risk as much of the forecast area has already received significant rainfall over the last couple of days. Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days. Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along and south of I-10. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 As we head into the work week small rain chances continue for Monday followed by a reprieve from the wet weather through the mid-week. POPs on Monday are only around 15-30% at best, with mainly isolated afternoon activity anticipated. Tuesday through Thursday a drier pattern is expected as a weak midlevel ridge builds over the Gulf Coast and offers a bit of drier air aloft to keep showers at bay. Finally by Friday we may see a return of shower activity as some long range models are now pointing to a weak frontal passage. This is still a ways out however, and changes to the progression of this front are likely. Temperature wise next week will bring a gradual warming trend with highs on Mon in the mid 80s warming into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday and beyond. Overnight, lows in the low to mid 70s can be expected. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, accompanied by occasional gusty winds and mainly VFR ceilings. Overall this activity has lessened in coverage/intensity over the last couple of hours therefore impacts should be fairly minimal this afternoon. Tonight, rain comes to an end however, fog will become an issue after midnight and beyond. All terminals will have the potential to see fog, which will also be accompanied by MVFR/IFR ceilings. Thereafter, fog will start to burn off while our next round of convection is expected to spread into the region from the west. This activity should be much less in coverage/intensity than the last couple of days. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight, rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 85 67 82 / 10 40 20 60 LCH 69 83 70 83 / 10 30 10 40 LFT 70 83 71 85 / 10 20 10 30 BPT 71 83 72 83 / 20 30 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17 ####018003570#### FXUS63 KILX 032033 CCA AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 318 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGE... - Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next week as a series of fronts advance across the region. The Tuesday through Wednesday period looks particularly active, with medium confidence in thunderstorms capable of producing all severe weather hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Current GOES WV imagery depicts a strong upper-level low positioned over western Ontario with more subtle shortwave energy ejecting out of the Great Basin. Model guidance remains in excellent agreement that shortwave energy lifts into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest regions overnight, ultimately helping to force a synoptic cold front into western Illinois Saturday afternoon. A plume of low-to-mid 60s dewpoints is progged to advect northward ahead of the cold front, and SBCAPE values should be able to achieve 1000-1500 J/kg with CINH eroding in the presence of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (> 7.5 C/km). This all adds up to likely (> 60% chance) thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. Coverage of Saturday storms could be limited by somewhat underwhelming deep-layer shear profiles, with much of the area at or below 30 kts in the vicinity of the cold front. Updrafts may struggle to become organized or struggle to stay organized, especially some of the early updrafts, and recent CAMs hint at this as well. Nevertheless, CAPE/Shear profiles are just good enough to support the potential for an isolated severe hail and wind threat. As storms move toward and east of I-55 Saturday evening, the severe potential should gradually fade. This will largely be due to the loss of daytime heating and the lack of a LLJ to help augment instability. This thinking lines up well with SPC's Day 2 Marginal Risk, which ends the threat near the I-57 corridor. Flooding should not be a concern with the Saturday storm event. NBM Mean QPF is around 0.25", and this guidance only offers a 10% chance that rainfall exceeds 0.75", which is well below 3-hour flash flood guidance. The rest of the weekend through Monday should be fairly low drama, with the main frontal zones displaced just to our south. Attention quickly turns to the Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe as persistent, deep southwest flow envelops the region ahead of an elongated upper-level low. While we're running lean on details at this timeframe, the synoptic pattern (kinematics/thermodynamics) being modeled supports a multi- day severe weather threat across portions of the Plains and Midwest. This strong signal in the global models is also reflected in the analogs and machine learning tools for severe weather potential. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Areas of broken stratus will continue to be observed in the vicinity of the surface cold front. The BMI/DEC/CMI terminals may experience broken MVFR ceilings through 23z/6pm before the front departs further east and skies clear out. Surface winds will become light and variable overnight with patchy fog developing. Coverage and confidence in fog remain too low to include mention in this TAF cycle. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$