####018004637#### FXUS63 KMKX 032052 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few stronger thunderstorms are possible in southeast WI Saturday afternoon. - Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: Clear skies will prevail over southern WI tonight. Look for winds to become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves across the region, then start increasing out of the southeast in the morning as the high departs. Dewpoints mixed down to around 40 this afternoon, so that should help our evening temps drop into the lower 50s quickly. Lows should be in the upper 40s, but can't rule out mid 40s toward central WI. A line of showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front will be tracking into the western part of WI Saturday morning. This front is associated with a mid level shortwave trough and the resultant weak surface low. The stronger forcing with that shortwave will stick closer to the entrance region of the upper jet, which will track across northwest WI. Therefore, the line of showers with a chance for lightning will be weakening as it tracks into south central WI late Saturday morning. Once the front reaches south central WI from around Janesville to Fond du Lac, there will have been enough daytime heating to allow for some build-up of CAPE (up to 1000 j/kg) in southeast WI to support an increase in shower and thunderstorm development. The shear is on the higher end and will be enhanced by the lake breeze. While the mid level forcing will be weaker, the surface forcing will be stronger. Thus, there is a chance for a stronger storm or two in far southeast WI during the afternoon. Small hail and gusty winds are the threats. The tornado threat is non-zero if storms interact just right with the lake breeze boundary. The window of opportunity looks like 3 to 8 PM for areas between Janesville, Port Washington, and the WI/IL border. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Sunday through Friday: High pressure will take hold of southern WI Sunday and Monday. Look for increasing southeast winds Mon afternoon as low pressure approaches from the Plains. That closed low will stay fairly stationary in the Northern Plains Mon-Tue as it occludes, but showers and thunderstorms along the warm front should extend into southern WI on Tuesday. As the upper low either moves eastward or weakens, another round of showers and storms is possible over southern WI on Thursday. The weather pattern associated with the storm chances is complicated and unorganized, which is the typical nature of upper lows. Expect changes to the forecast many times between now and then. Unfortunately, that upper low does not move out of the Upper Midwest until at least Saturday, which means a prolonged period of clouds and precip chances for southern WI until then. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Winds will be calm overnight and start increasing out of the southeast in the morning as low pressure approaches from MN. A line of showers and thunderstorms will be weakening as it tracks into south central WI late Saturday morning. Once the associated front makes it to around Janesville-Fond du Lac, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Areas southeast of Janesville to Port Washington have the best chance for stronger storms. Thunderstorm activity should exit the area by 10 pm (03Z), but probably earlier. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Light southeast winds are expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure slides across the Upper Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front late Saturday afternoon through the evening. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. The next low pressure system that may bring gusty winds below gale level and another round of thunderstorms will track across northern Lake Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018004827#### FXUS63 KEAX 032052 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for overnight into early tomorrow morning. Isolated strong storms may be possible. - There is a potential for strong to severe storms on Monday. All hazards are possible. - Additional rounds of rain may cause river flooding to continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There is currently a progressive longwave pattern over CONUS with strong ridging in the east and troughing in the northern Great Plains region. The upper level jet is rounding the base of the trough from Nebraska curving into Minnesota. There is currently a west-southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is high pressure just to the north of the area resulting in easterly winds. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows increased 850MB flow into southern Nebraska. Added effects of diurnal heating results in wind gusts as high as 15-20 mph through the afternoon. Tonight, a smaller, quickly-moving shortwave trough will merge with the trough to the north of our area. The warm front associated with the smaller shortwave is expected to impact the area later tonight. This will result in low temperatures being ~10 degrees warmer than last night as warm air advects with southerly winds. As the surface cold front approaches the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible out ahead and along the frontal boundary. With MUCAPE values ranging from 1,000-1,500 J/kg and bulk shear around 30-35 knots, there may be a chance for a few strong thunderstorms with strong winds and hail. At this time, the main threat is expected to be further west. However, with the consistent rainfall we have been having, pooling and ponding along roadways may be possible. SPC has recognized this by putting our area in a marginal chance for severe weather for this time period. Frontal passage is expected tomorrow afternoon. With cooler, drier air pushing in behind the front, expect high temperatures to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Sunday, decent mid level ridging builds in behind the trough resulting in high pressure at the surface across northern Missouri. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone tracks across the Ozarks Sunday resulting in a chance for some showers for areas south of I-70. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s while low temperatures are forecasted to stay in the 50s. On Monday, the mid level ridging shifts slowly to the east as another trough enters central CONUS and becomes more negatively- tilted. By late Monday evening, winds will shift to the south as our region enters the warm sector of the associated surface warm front. As a result of this, return-flow from the Gulf will help to slowly destabilize the environment. The surface front is expected to pass through overnight into Tuesday. With the passage of this front showers and thunderstorms are expected. CAPE values around this time range from 2,000 J/kg to 3,000 J/kg which suggest plenty of instability for convective activity. With bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots, there will ample shear to aid in storm organization as well as create a favorable environment for large hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into early Tuesday morning as the system moves east. Tuesday, the pattern continues its unsettled trend as multiple shortwaves pass through by the end of the week. The trough continues its track northerly and then begins to linger in southern Minnesota. As multiple shortwaves eject from the stagnant trough, chances for showers remain through next week. By next weekend the trough finally begins to shift south and becomes positively-tilted as it moves to the southeast of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain for a majority of the TAF period. Winds are currently out of the east with the surface high pressure to the north. Winds will shift to the south early tomorrow morning. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning along the cold front. Thunderstorms at the terminals were left out due to uncertainties on timing and placement. Winds will shift to the north by tomorrow afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier ####018004270#### FXUS64 KLIX 032052 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it. The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset. For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area. Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mix of VFR to IFR conditions are ongoing as large clusters of showers pass from west to east across the area. As this activity dissipates later this afternoon, lower decks should generally lift as well. The period of VFR will likely be short lived as widespread rainfall today will enhance the potential for areas of light fog tonight. Dense fog shouldn't be too common, so mostly have BR in most TAF forecasts. VFR should return mid morning. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts. Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME ####018003241#### FXUS63 KFGF 032052 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 and the southern portion of Grant, Ottertail, Wadena this evening. - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday, with isolated stronger storms possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A quick shortwave will move across the international border to give our northern counties the chance for some brief showers but amounts look to be around 0.20 inches or less. This evening a band of 850mb fgen will bring shower chances across the far southern valley into west central Minnesota rain; amounts look to be under 0.50 inches. If any thunderstorm do develop as models hint at the availability of some instability the greatest threat looks to be lighting and some pea size hail at the most tonight. Sunday, A temporary ridge sets up to give us a break in this wet pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60's with some areas reaching 70. However, Monday, a negatively tilted trough will increase the chances for showers and gusty winds starting in the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level flow will also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. Monday evening through Tuesday morning looks to be our first chance of severe thunderstorms for our area. The NBM highlights the I-94 corridor and south with 80-90% probs for CWASP values of 50 or greater, but only 10% of values greater than 65%. Looking at the 25/75 percentiles QPF values float between 0.10 and 1 inch for the CWA. With the chance for severe thunderstorms QPF values may reach 1 to 2 inches underneath the thunderstorms. Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Ceilings will float between 2000-4000ft most areas due to a wave moving through in the Northern and southern edges of our CWA. KDVL and KBJI will likely move between these categories. The most uncertainty is with KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF that lie in the middle area of these two waves and will mostly likely stay VFR. However, Any deviation of the waves could result in MVFR conditions and possible rain showers through this evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...MM