####018005539#### FXUS64 KCRP 032110 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country late this afternoon through late this evening. Main concern is this evening with the chances for thunderstorms, and whether they will become severe. High pressure is off to the east centered over Mississippi, and a sfc low is in northern Mexico. The pressure gradient has tightened over the Coastal Bend, and caused the winds to increase for a time this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are beginning to break out in the Big Bend region with the sfc trough that is aligned with the Rio Grande Valley. The HRRR/ARW/FV3 seem to have a good handle on this, with the GFS and ECMWF as well, but the larger models have weaker precipitation. Between 00z and 03z the storms are expected to move into northern Webb and Lasalle counties and move toward the southeast, but as they do the sfc high in Mississippi, is expected to build to the southwest, into the Coastal Bend, eastern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads. The models expect that the thunderstorms will get stopped by the sfc high, or pushed south down the Rio Grande Plains. The NAM barely has the thunder getting into the region, before it gets squashed. The only thing overnight then is isolated showers, and with the PWAT around 1.5" or better, a shower here or there is a low chance (<20%). Saturday, the front north of the Hill Country looks to remain there, with chances for rain to move south low (<10%), as the sfc high remains along the Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the models begin to move the front. the GFS pushes most of the thunderstorms to the east with the isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers creeping into the Brush Country. ECMWF pushes it a bit south and has a 500 mb shortwave that runs over the western part, kicking off rain in the western Hill Country, and getting rain into the Brush Country overnight. The NBM has a blend of the two solutions with slight chance to chance pops (15-40%) From Victoria to Laredo and locations north. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week Conditions begin with a low to medium chance (30-45%) for scattered thunderstorms Sunday. This will be due to some above normal PWAT values around the 99th percentile along with some associated energy from a upper level disturbance moving across the region to the north. The caveat with these storms will be the solid CIN values across the area which should largely keep things in check. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads should have the best chances for any convection due to some breaks in higher CIN values. Temperatures will warm after the disturbance clears and expect our next shot of summer weather by Tuesday. Unfortunately, heat indices will be in the 110-115 degree range across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, heat stress related impacts will likely occur and the proper preparations should be done in advance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated showers are in the Victoria Crossroads, and the chances are expected to remain low (chance <30%) that at VCT, CRP, and ALI. In the meantime, MVFR CIGs are expected through the evening, until the low clouds and fog move back into the region overnight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Rio Grande Valley to the north or along the Sierra Madre and move southeast into COT and LRD after 00z/SAT and last through about 03z/SAT before they die off or move out of the forecast area. The rest of the night will have MVFR to IFR CIGs and probably MVFR to VFR VSBYs as the moisture remains high overnight. Ceilings will rise late in the morning to MVFR, and possibly VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 100 AM Saturday Morning. However, the high pressure will nose into the Coastal Bend overnight allowing the flow to weaken. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late next week with seas around 3-6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 88 75 87 / 20 20 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 85 / 30 10 30 30 Laredo 76 94 75 91 / 40 20 30 40 Alice 74 91 74 89 / 20 20 20 30 Rockport 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 89 / 40 10 40 40 Kingsville 74 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL/86 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...JSL ####018004743#### FXUS65 KFGZ 032115 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 215 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low- pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. Slight chance for isolated showers along the Kaibab on Sunday, elsewhere will remain mostly dry. Elevated winds will continue through much of next week, and warm/dry conditions will persist. && .DISCUSSION...Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoon winds and mostly dry conditions have been our main song and dance for the last several days. Our tune will shift over the weekend, as a strong low-pressure system slides down the Great Basin region. The first indication of this invading pressure system will be increasing winds on Saturday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 25-35 mph, throughout the afternoon. Stronger winds may be present along our Mohave County border, and elevated winds look to continue overnight for many areas along higher terrain. Sunday is when the main impacts of this storm system will unveil. Gusty southwest winds will start around 7AM MST/8AM MDT and continue through at least 9PM MST/10PM MDT. Gusty in this case is referring to sustained winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts between 45-65 mph. Keep in mind, winds might not jump to these high of speeds first thing in the morning, but will continue to increase throughout the morning/afternoon. As a result of these strong winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of northern Arizona for Sunday. Hazards may include, but are not limited to, difficult travel for high profile vehicles, power outages, and areas of blowing dust. Strong/damaging winds are not the only point of focus for Sunday though. There is also a near- critical to critical fire weather concern for portions of eastern Arizona. Relative humidity values do increase slightly on Sunday, but even so, there are still some areas that will be very susceptible to rapid fire starts/spreads. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday for areas near Eager, Springerville and St. Johns. This watch is valid between 11AM MST/12PM MDT to 7PM MST/8PM MDT. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch and/or the Fire Weather Watch. Early next week, this storm system will push northeast and allow a zonal flow to return over northern Arizona. Temperatures will slowly warm from Sunday, but still remain a couple degree below normal through the middle of next week. Winds will also remain gusty near our eastern border with the exit of the storm system, but typical spring-like breezes should return for much of next week. && .AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and variable through most of Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday. Southwest winds at 25-30 kts on Saturday strengthening to sustained at 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. Saturday will see afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. On Sunday much stronger winds develop becoming southwest at 20 to 30 mph gusting of 40 to 55 mph before noon. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday over far east Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of east central Arizona. Monday through Wednesday...Dry and a bit warmer. Westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ004>017-039-040. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff