####018001400#### AXXX82 KWNP 190031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 18 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3633 S08W92 323 80 4 CSO 3 B 3634 N28W82 313 220 10 DSO 6 B 3635 N22W56 287 20 3 CRO 3 B 3636 S21W18 249 60 3 CAO 4 B 3637 S14E01 230 10 6 BXO 6 B 3638 S18E03 228 30 5 CRI 5 B 3639 N29E11 220 290 12 EAI 16 BG 3641 N09W45 276 30 1 HSX 1 A 3643 S12E17 213 160 10 DAI 29 B 3644 N12E49 182 120 5 DSO 2 B 3645 S09E10 221 140 7 DAI 12 B 3646 N21E50 181 70 8 CRO 8 B 3647 S10E12 218 140 4 DAC 10 BD 3648 N19E39 192 10 3 BXO 2 B ####018002149#### FXXX10 KWNP 190031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2024 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.00 03-06UT 0.67 1.00 3.67 06-09UT 1.00 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 1.67 1.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 19-21 Apr. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 18 2024 0248 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 19-21 Apr. ####018002813#### FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3638 (S18E03, Cri/beta) was responsible for the strongest event of the period, an M2.2 (R1-Minor) flare at 18/0248 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3647 (S10E12, Dac/beta-delta) resides in the middle of a cluster of sunspots in the SE quadrant. Most of the significant sunspot growth over the past 24 hours is between Region 3647 and Region 3645 (S09E10, Dai/beta). The remaining regions were mostly stable or in gradual decay. Multiple CMEs were observed off the SE following a series of eruptions from the vicinity of Region 3638 (S18E03, Cri/beta) after 17/1730 UTC. Analysis suggests these CMEs are near misses directed Eastward of the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery. If the periphery of the CMEs do expand onto the Sun-Earth line, theyd likely by observed at Earth over 21-22 Apr. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels over 19-21 Apr with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, as well as a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 19-21 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A weakly enhanced solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength ranged 4-9 nT. The Bz component was primarily oriented northward. Solar wind speeds were in steady decline through the period, from ~410 km/s to near ~330 km/s by the of the UT day. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are like to be near background levels over 19 Apr. On 20 Apr and into 21 Apr, enhanced conditions are likely due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences, with potential additional influence from the periphery of multiple, weak CMEs. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to persist at quiet to unsettled levels over 19 Apr. Unsettled conditions are likely on 20 Apr and active conditions on 21 Apr mostly due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS.