####018001574#### AXXX82 KWNP 220031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 21 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3636 S21W58 250 10 1 AXX 1 A 3637 S13W43 234 10 2 AXX 2 A 3638 S18W35 227 80 5 CRI 11 B 3639 N28W29 221 260 12 EKI 22 BG 3641 N10W87 278 10 1 AXX 1 A 3643 S13W16 208 80 7 CRO 10 B 3644 N13E10 181 150 6 DSO 2 B 3645 S09W34 226 290 10 DKI 20 BG 3646 N21E14 178 30 5 CAO 8 B 3647 S13W28 219 220 6 DAC 12 BD 3648 N18W02 193 10 1 AXX 1 A 3650 S11W08 199 70 6 CAI 8 B 3652 N15E31 160 60 4 CAI 7 B 3653 N03E60 132 10 1 AXX 1 A 3654 S07E60 132 10 2 BXO 3 B 3655 S27E62 130 20 3 CRO 3 B 3656 S12E72 120 20 2 HSX 1 A ####018002544#### FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached (R1-Minor) moderate levels this period. Region 3645 (S09W34, Dki/beta-gamma) produced an M1.0/1f flare at 21/1259 UTC. This region saw slight growth in the peripheral spots. Region 3638 (S18W35, Cri/beta) produced an M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC, with an observed Type II radio sweep (est. 278 km/s). Further coronagraph imagery is need to analyze any CME that may be associated with the event. Slight area growth was noted in this region. C-class flare activity was also observed from several additional regions. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. New Regions 3652 (N15E31, Cai/beta), 3653 (N03E60, Axx/alpha), 3654 (S07E62, Bxo/beta), 3655 (S27E62, Cro/beta) and 3656 (S12E72, Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 22-24 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 22-24 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were nominal throughout the period. Wind speeds ranged between around 400-500 km/. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-7 nT and the Bz component generally remained southward to -5 to -6 nT. The phi angle was mostly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels this period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 22-24 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. ####018002225#### FXXX10 KWNP 220031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 00-03UT 2.67 2.33 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 3.67 3.67 2.00 09-12UT 2.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 2.67 1.67 18-21UT 1.00 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 1.00 3.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 21 2024 2152 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, through 24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.