####018002535#### FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3645 (S09W40, Dki/beta-gamma) produced two M1.0/1f flares at 21/1259 UTC and 22/0813 UTC, and was mostly stable following a period of minor growth early this period. Region 3638 (S18W44, Cri/beta) produced an M2.2/1n flare at 21/1514 UTC and an M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC, and began to show signs of decay. Regions 3646 (N21E07, Cai/beta) and 3652 (N15E24, Dao/beta) exhibited growth while the remaining regions were mostly stable throughout the period. Two CMEs, associated with the M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC and a C8.9 flare at 22/0537 UTC from Region 3638, are being analyzed for an Earth-directed component. The remaining CMEs observed this period have been analyzed as misses. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 22-24 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 22-24 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were nominal throughout the period. Wind speeds were steady at around 450 km/s, total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 8 nT, and the Bz component varied +/-6 nT. The phi angle was in a negative orientation. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels this period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 22-23 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. ####018002217#### FXXX10 KWNP 221231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 00-03UT 2.33 2.33 3.00 03-06UT 2.67 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 2.67 3.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.00 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 1.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.67 1.67 18-21UT 2.67 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several regions on the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 21 2024 2152 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2024 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 22-24 Apr.