####018001458#### AXXX82 KWNP 240031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 23 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3638 S18W65 230 10 6 BXO 10 B 3639 N28W58 223 160 12 EAI 9 BG 3643 S13W46 211 10 4 BXO 6 B 3644 N13W18 183 80 7 DAO 6 B 3645 S08W64 229 250 10 DKC 17 BG 3646 N21W15 180 200 9 DAI 18 BG 3647 S13W58 223 190 7 DAC 20 BG 3648 N18W30 195 10 4 BXO 5 B 3649 N16W81 246 20 4 CSO 3 B 3650 S11W37 202 110 8 CAI 12 B 3652 N15E02 163 120 9 DSO 5 B 3654 S08E31 134 160 8 DAI 13 B 3655 S28E36 129 130 8 DAO 4 B 3656 S12E46 119 10 1 CRO 3 B 3657 S12E17 147 10 2 BXO 1 B ####018003524#### FXXX12 KWNP 240031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased slightly over the past 24 hours, with only three low-level M-class events observed. Were not out of the woods yet, however. Region 3854 (S08E31, Dai/Beta) produced two of the three M flares, an M3.6 at 23/0319 UTC and an M3.0 at 23/0821 UTC. Over the past day, the leader and trailer spots in this region continued to separate and flux continued to emerge. Region 3845 (S08W64, DKC/Beta-gamma) produced the final M-class event, an M2.9 at 23/1744 UTC. It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst beginning at 23/1747 UTC and ejecta to the west was observed in GOES SUVI 304 angstrom imagery. Coronagraph imagery of that event is not yet available. Also of note was the appearance of new, rapidly emerging flux between regions 3654 and 3657 in the southeast quadrant of the visible disk. This region is being monitored for potential numbering. Further analysis of the filament eruption that began at around 23/0330 UTC near S10W02 ,and was mentioned in this mornings discussion, revealed no discernable Earth-directed CME. However, multiple narrow, southward CMEs as well as a larger partial halo CME associated with the M2.9 from AR 3638 were observed. The latter is being analyzed at the time of this writing. .Forecast... Although M-flare production decreased, solar activity is still expected to be at moderate to high levels over 24-26 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Wind speeds decreased from 400-450 km/s early in the day to between 350-400 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT and Bz varied +/-5 nT. The phi angle was negative. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-26 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible CME activity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period late. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet and unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled and active levels are expected again on 25 Apr from possible CME activity and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. These conditions are anticipated to persist through 25 Apr. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms persists with the eruptive activity noted above, although there are no obvious Earth-directed events discernible in the coronagraph imagery. ####018002162#### FXXX10 KWNP 240031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 00-03UT 3.00 3.00 4.33 03-06UT 2.67 2.67 4.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 2.00 4.33 3.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 15-18UT 1.67 3.33 2.67 18-21UT 1.67 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 23 2024 0319 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all three days.