####018001516#### AXXX82 KWNP 250031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 24 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3638 S17W74 233 30 5 CAI 6 B 3639 N29W66 217 80 12 EAO 4 B 3643 S12W57 209 240 12 EAC 16 BG 3644 N13W21 180 60 6 HSX 2 A 3645 S08W71 230 260 10 DKC 15 BG 3646 N21W20 179 230 10 DAI 12 B 3647 S14W61 220 140 7 DAI 12 B 3648 N18W38 197 70 9 DAI 11 BG 3650 S11W45 204 10 6 BXO 2 B 3652 N14W05 164 80 8 CSO 5 B 3653 N03E15 136 0 0 AXX 1 A 3654 S08E25 134 130 11 EAC 18 B 3655 S28E30 129 120 11 ESO 5 B 3656 S12E42 117 20 3 CRO 5 B 3657 S12E10 149 20 7 CRO 7 B 3658 S21W32 183 10 2 BXO 2 B ####018002893#### FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3638 (S17W74, Cai/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M2.0 flare (R1-Minor) at 24/2259 UTC. AR 3638 also produced a C9.4 flare at 24/1410 that had associated Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (est. 800 km/s initially reported, but revised down to 379 km/s in the final report) as well as a faint CME off the SW in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 24/1436 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event determined the CME to be ahead and south of Earths orbit. Newly numbered Region 3658 (S21W32, Box/beta) was relatively quiet. Growth was observed in Region 3648 (N18W38, Dai/beta-gamma) and 3654 (S08E25, Eac/beta). The remaining 14 spotted active regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate over the next three days, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was peaked near high levels but remained moderate, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is forecast to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between ~350-400 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive between 24/0615-1530 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 25-27 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possibly multiple transients that are suspected to pass by in the vicinity of Earth over the next few days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is likely to range from quiet to active levels on 25-27 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSS activity combined with potential transient influence from the edge of pass CMEs in the vicinity of Earth. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms exists over 25-26 Apr should these features carry periods of significant southward Bz. ####018002313#### FXXX10 KWNP 250031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2024 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27 00-03UT 3.00 4.33 3.67 03-06UT 2.67 4.00 3.33 06-09UT 3.67 3.33 2.00 09-12UT 4.33 3.00 3.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 3.33 2.67 3.00 18-21UT 2.67 2.00 3.00 21-00UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 24-26 Apr due to the favorable location and enhanced flare probabilities of a number of spot groups. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 24 2024 2259 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event due to the number of sunspots present on the solar disk and increased flare probabilities 24-26 Apr.