####018001342#### AXXX82 KWNP 260031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 26 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 25 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3639 N30W78 217 20 2 CAO 2 B 3644 N13W42 181 40 6 HSX 2 A 3645 S08W84 223 220 10 DAI 12 B 3646 N21W40 179 130 10 DAO 9 B 3647 S13W82 221 120 6 DAC 8 B 3648 N18W60 199 80 10 DAI 8 BG 3652 N14W26 165 80 2 HSX 1 A 3654 S08E06 133 210 11 EAI 12 BG 3655 S27E11 128 100 9 DSO 4 B 3656 S12E20 119 10 1 AXX 1 A 3657 S13W05 144 30 7 BXO 3 B 3658 S21W47 186 20 3 CRO 3 B 3659 S13E34 105 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018003164#### FXXX12 KWNP 260031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 26 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels with three M-class X-ray events (R1-Minor) observed. Region 3638 (S18, L=231) produced an M1.0 at 25/1321 UTC and an M1.3 flare at 25/1712 UTC, the strongest flare of the period, as it rotated around the WSW limb. Region 3645 (S08W84, Dai/beta) produced an M1.0 flare at 25/0149 UTC. The region decayed in overall area and magnetic complexity as it approached the W limb. Region 3654 (S08E06, Eai/beta-gamma) grew in size, spot count, and complexity this period. Overall decay was noted within the active region cluster in the SW. New Region 3659 (S13E34, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period. All remaining regions were quiet and little changed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over 26-27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). On 28 Apr, solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels as numerous active regions depart the visible and near disk. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period reaching a max reading of 1,670 pfu at 251050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 26-27 Apr declining to normal to moderate levels on 28 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 26-27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component was mostly northward through the period. Solar wind speeds weakly varied between +3 to -4 nT. Solar wind speed varied between a high of near 335 km/s early to a low of about 290 km/s late. The phi angle was variable. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 26-28 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 26-28 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for minor (G1) geomagnetic storm periods exists over 26-27 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz. ####018002204#### FXXX10 KWNP 260031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 26 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 26-Apr 28 2024 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 4.00 3.67 3.00 06-09UT 3.33 3.00 3.67 09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 2.67 2.67 18-21UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.33 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 26-28 Apr due tot he position and flare potential of several active regions in the W hemisphere. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 25 2024 1712 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2024 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days.