####018001284#### AXXX82 KWNP 270031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 26 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3639 N30W90 215 10 1 AXX 1 A 3644 N13W57 182 40 6 HSX 2 A 3645 S08W98 223 220 10 DAI 12 B 3646 N21W53 178 90 10 CAO 5 B 3648 N18W72 197 80 9 DRI 6 BG 3652 N14W42 167 70 2 HSX 1 A 3654 S08W08 133 160 12 EAI 19 BG 3655 S27W03 128 60 9 HSX 1 A 3656 S12E07 118 10 1 AXX 1 A 3657 S15W19 144 10 2 BXO 3 B 3658 S23W60 185 60 6 DRO 4 B 3659 S13E20 105 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018003191#### FXXX12 KWNP 270031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity declined to low levels. Regions 3638 (S18, L=231), 3639 (N30W90, Axx/alpha) and 3647 (S13, L=217) produced C-class flare activity during the period, the largest a C6.6 at 26/0636 UTC from Region 3639. Region 3654 (S08W08, Eai/beta-gamma) remained the largest region on the disk, but was quiet. The region did indicate some slight area decay. Minor development was observed in Region 3658 (S23W60, Dro/beta). The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Moderate levels of solar activity are expected on 27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with M-class flare activity likely on 28 Apr decreasing to a chance on 29 Apr as the cluster of complex regions rotate around the SW limb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of multiple active regions. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 28-29 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 27-29 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions became weakly enhanced at around 26/0018 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 13 nT at 26/1510 UTC, while the Bz component was sustained southward most of the period, by as much as -11 nT 26/1250 UTC. Solar wind speed peaked at 387 km/s at 26/0116 UTC and slowly decreased to low speeds near 305 km/s near the end of the period. The phi angle was predominately negative through about 26/1500 UTC when the orientation switched to positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz. ####018002120#### FXXX10 KWNP 270031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29 S1 or greater 15% 5% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 27 Apr due to the location and flare potential of multiple active regions. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29 R1-R2 75% 55% 35% R3 or greater 15% 5% 5% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, on 27 Apr. R1-R2 events are likely on 28 Apr and there is a chance for R1-R2 events on 29 Apr.