####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 290031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 28 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3644 N13W83 182 10 2 BXO 2 B 3646 N22W74 173 10 1 AXX 1 A 3648 N18W99 198 10 2 BXO 2 B 3652 N14W70 169 50 2 HSX 2 A 3654 S07W36 135 310 15 EKC 25 BGD 3655 S26W33 132 60 2 HSX 1 A 3657 S14W46 145 10 1 AXX 1 A 3658 S22W84 183 50 3 CAO 4 B 3660 N10E50 49 10 3 BXO 3 B ####018002052#### FXXX10 KWNP 290031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 00-03UT 2.67 2.33 2.00 03-06UT 2.00 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.33 2.00 3.67 09-12UT 2.67 2.00 3.33 12-15UT 2.33 1.67 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 1.67 2.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.67 21-00UT 2.67 1.67 3.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. ####018002446#### FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to low levels. Region 3654 (S07W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced c-class events this period, the largest a C8.3/Sf flare at 28/2020 UTC. Region 3654 exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots, and developed a delta magnetic configuration. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was at mostly steady levels this period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly in the mid 400s. The phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation through the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 29-30 Apr and 01 May due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field decreased from active early in the day to quiet levels from 28/0300 UTC onward. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01 May due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days.