####018002235#### FXXX10 KWNP 291231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 00-03UT 2.00 2.33 1.67 03-06UT 1.33 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.00 2.00 3.67 09-12UT 1.33 2.00 3.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 3.33 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2024 0111 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2024 Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 29 Apr-01 May, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3654. ####018002520#### FXXX12 KWNP 291231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3654 (S07W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two R1 (Minor) events; an M2.5 flare at 29/0048 UTC and an M3.7 flare at 29/0111 UTC. Region 3654 continued a trend of growth, especially in the intermediate and trailer spots, and maintained a delta magnetic configuration in the largest intermediate spot. New Regions 3661 (N23E69, Hsx/alpha) and 3662 (N30E46, Cro/beta) were numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included an eruption near N13W09 at 29/0909 UTC, though no coronagraph imagery for this event is yet available. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +6/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from from 400 km/s to around 450-500 km/s as the period progressed. The phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 29-30 Apr and 01 May due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01 May, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient activity.