####018002652#### FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3654 (S07W57, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.6 flare at 30/0114 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class activity including a C8.5/1n at 29/1926 UTC. Region 3654 continued a trend of growth, especially in the intermediate and trailer spots, and maintained a delta magnetic configuration in the largest intermediate spot. New Regions 3661 (N23E69, Hsx/alpha) and 3662 (N30E39, Cro/beta) were numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included an eruption near N13W09 at 29/0909 UTC that displayed a westward flow across GOES-16 SUVI imagery. SOHO/LASCO imagery showed a CME off the NW limb at 29/1248 UTC that was modelled as a potential Earth hit early on 03 May. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 30 Apr and 01-02 May with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 30 Apr and 01-02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +6/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds remained steady, averaging about 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 30 Apr and 01-02 May due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01-02 May, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient activity. ####018002225#### FXXX10 KWNP 301231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2024 Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 2.00 1.67 3.67 03-06UT 1.67 2.67 4.00 06-09UT 0.67 3.67 3.67 09-12UT 1.00 3.33 3.33 12-15UT 1.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 3.33 2.67 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 1.67 4.00 3.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024 Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 30 2024 0114 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024 Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts all three days. Primarily due to the potential of Region 3654.