####018003597#### FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels with three (R1/Minor) flares observed. Region 3663 (N26E18, Dac/beta-gamma) produced two M class flares, an M1.8/Sn at 01/2231 UTC and an M1.0/Sn at 02/0219 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class flares this period. The region showed rapid growth in the intermediate and leader spots and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 3654 (S07W81, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.8/Sn flare at 01/1432 UTC as the region approached the WSW limb. Region 3664 (S18E57, Dai/beta) produced C-class activity on the SE limb. As it further rotated onto the disk, growth was observed in its trailer spots. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. New Region 3665 (S05E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No new CMEs were observed during the period. .Forecast... Moderate solar activity is anticipated on 02-04 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance of an X-class flare (R3/Strong) event due primarily to the complexity and continued flare activity from Regions 3654 and 3663. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 02-04 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 02 May due to the slight risk of a solar energetic particle event from the favorably located sunspot complex, Region 3654. This region will begin rotating beyond the limb on 03 May, resulting in decreased chances of S1 storm potential. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of transient progression. Total IMF strength ranged from 10-13 nT much of the period, however, the Bz component rotated northward early, became neutral mid period and transitioned south to -12 nT late. Solar wind speed varied between about 350-385 km/s through the period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. .Forecast... Transient passage influences are likely to wane on 02 May, however, additional nearby CME passages or glancing influences are possible through 03 May. Also, several isolated CH HSS flows are anticipated to affect the solar wind, keeping a disturbed and enhanced field present. Finally, a mainly southwest directed CME associated with the aforementioned long-duration C5 flare has been analyzed and modeled. Results are mixed, so there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding this CME. However, there is some consensus that a flanking edge shock arrival at Earth later on 04 May is feasible. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... A mix of transient and CH HSS effects are likely to lead to variable geomagnetic responses 02-03 May from quiet periods to active levels. Dependent upon the 01 May CME transit and path, geomagnetic response could escalate to active levels later on 04 May, with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels. This CME continues to be analyzed for a final determination of geoeffective potential. ####018002337#### FXXX10 KWNP 021231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 00-03UT 2.67 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 4.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.33 4.33 21-00UT 4.33 3.67 4.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 S1 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and its current location. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 R1-R2 55% 40% 30% R3 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654 and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654 rotates off the visible disk.