####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 040031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 03 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3654 S07W0* 138 240 11 EAI 6 B 3655 S26W97 130 20 1 HRX 1 A 3661 N23E15 18 50 9 CSO 2 B 3662 N30W28 61 100 10 DAO 4 B 3663 N26W03 36 480 12 EKC 28 BGD 3664 S18E41 352 240 11 EAI 16 BG 3665 S05E57 336 10 1 HRX 1 A 3666 N07E16 17 120 6 CAI 10 B ####018002266#### FXXX10 KWNP 040031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 3.00 3.33 5.67 (G2) 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 5.67 (G2) 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 1.67 2.00 3.67 15-18UT 2.67 3.00 3.67 18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 03 2024 0222 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2024 May 04 May 05 May 06 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk. ####018003477#### FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W03, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.6/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 03/0222 UTC, with accompanying Type II (est. 959 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. The associated CME, first visible in LASCO imagery off the NNE at 03/0248 UTC, is expected to arrive late on 05 May or early 06 May. Region 3663 grew slightly in size and spot count this period, and maintained a strong delta magnetic configuration within the largest intermediate spot. In addition to the X-flare, Region 3663 produced an impulsive M4.4/Sb flare at 03/0811 UTC, though no CME was associated with this activity. Region 3664 (S18E41, Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited minor growth throughout the period and produced an impulsive M2.7/1n flare at 03/0015 UTC, along with several C-class flares. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region 3661 (N23E15, Cso/beta) beginning at around 03/0500 UTC. The associated CMEs were analyzed as misses. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 04-06 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 04-06 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 04-06 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was enhanced early this period following the passage of a CME on 02 May. Total field strength values ranged 2-12 nT and Bz varied +8/-7 nT, with a marked decrease observed in the IMF after 03/0145 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from a peak of around 530 km/s observed early in the day, to around 400 km/s by the end of the period. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare detailed above. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field decreased from unsettled and active conditions early in the period following CME activity, to mostly quiet conditions after 03/0900 UTC. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled and active levels on 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions and periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 05 May due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are expected on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences.