####018002266#### FXXX10 KWNP 050031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 5.67 (G2) 3.00 06-09UT 2.67 5.67 (G2) 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 1.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.67 2.67 18-21UT 4.00 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 04 2024 0619 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk. ####018003093#### FXXX12 KWNP 050031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W16, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M9.1/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 04/0619 UTC and a M9.0 flare at 04/2348 UTC. A Type II (est. 950 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep, along with a Tenflare, were observed with the M9.1. A CME is suspected to be associated with the flare, however, coronagraph imagery is unavailable since 03/2337 UTC due to an apparent outage. Regions 3663 and 3664 (S19E28, Ekc/beta-delta) persisted as the largest and most complex regions on the disk, with minor growth noted in both. New Region 3667 (N28E73, Hsx/alpha) was numbered and the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other eruptive activity included a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC, with associated Type II (est. 392 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions, from an unspotted area to the east of Region 3666 (N07E02, Cai/beta). The associated CME, first seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC, has been analyzed as a glancing-blow hit on 09 May. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor- Moderate), with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 05-07 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 05-07 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 05-07 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT and the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased throughout the period, from early readings near 400 km/s to around 350-370 km/s. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 05-07 May. A stronger disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 05 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to continued CME activity and CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 050031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 04 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3661 N23W01 21 50 1 HSX 1 A 3662 N29W40 60 50 10 CSO 3 B 3663 N26W16 36 580 13 EKC 30 BGD 3664 S19E28 352 310 11 EKC 20 BD 3665 S05E44 336 10 1 HRX 1 A 3666 N07E02 18 130 6 CAI 10 B 3667 N28E73 307 80 3 HSX 1 A