####018002425#### FXXX10 KWNP 071231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 07-May 09 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 07-May 09 2024 May 07 May 08 May 09 00-03UT 2.00 2.33 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 15-18UT 2.67 1.00 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.00 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 07-May 09 2024 May 07 May 08 May 09 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next three days. Primarily due to the potential from ARs 3663 and 3664. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 07 2024 0616 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 07-May 09 2024 May 07 May 08 May 09 R1-R2 90% 90% 90% R3 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are expected through 09 May given the evolution of ARs 3663 and 3664 as well as their recent flare history. In addition, a high chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout will persist through 09 May as well given AR 3663s history of X-class flares. ####018003380#### FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W52, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited slight separation in its intermediate spots, showed little overall growth, and was responsible for the vast majority of the M class flares. The largest was an M5.1 at 07/0616 UTC. Region 3664 (S19W05, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its delta configuration, continued to grow and produced M-class activity. Region 3668 (S17E06, Dao/beta-gamma) displayed growth in overall areal extent as well as new intermediate and trailer spots. Despite its growth, this region was mostly inactive. New Region 3670 (N17E59, Hax/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was also inactive. The remaining spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels over 07-09 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 07-09 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 07-09 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was indicative of the continued effects of the 03 May CME arrival. Additionally, a positive polarity CH HSS likely connected with the Earth during the time of the CME passage. Total field strength continued to slowly decrease, reaching a peak of 12 nT around early in the period. The Bz component saw southward deflections to -12 nT before turning mostly north for the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds slowly climbed over the period, reaching a peak over 565 km/s. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind conditions, associated a positive polarity CH HSS, are likely to prevail over 07-08 May. On 09 May, the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May, may cause enhancements in the solar wind environment before returning to nominal levels by the end of the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 03 May, and the likely onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. .Forecast... Active conditions are likely on 07 May as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists. Waning CH HSS influences by 08 May should bring quiet to unsettled levels briefly, before possibly ramping back up to periods of active conditions on 09 May with the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May.