####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 080031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 07 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3661 N22W42 21 10 1 AXX 1 A 3663 N25W57 37 400 16 FKC 15 BGD 3664 S20W09 349 630 16 FKC 37 BGD 3666 N07W40 20 80 2 HSX 2 A 3667 N26E32 307 150 3 HSX 1 A 3668 S16E01 338 30 6 CSO 6 B 3669 S09E15 324 10 1 AXX 1 A 3670 N16E55 284 40 2 HSX 1 A ####018003462#### FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W57, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) edged closer to the western limb, making accurate analysis of its magnetic structure difficult. However, based on its recent activity, it would appear the delta configuration still remains. This region produced most of the M-class flares, including an M8.2/Sf at 07/1630 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 3663 also contributed an additional six M-flares, including an M5.1 at 07/0616 UTC. Region 3664 (S20W09, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta configuration, but had significant growth in its intermediate and trailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall areal coverage over 630 millionths. This region produced additional M-class flares, the largest being an M2.4 flare at 07/1150 UTC. Region 3668 (S16E01, Cso/beta) appeared to be decaying and losing spots, and was inactive during the period. The remaining spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. The No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over 08-10 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the continued flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 08-10 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 08-10 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, Phi was in a positive orientation, and the solar wind speeds averaged between 500-550 km/s. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind conditions are likely to diminish slightly over 08 May as CH HSS influence subsides. On 09 May, possible enhancements are likely, following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May. Conditions are then expected to return to near nominal levels by the end of the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Waning CH HSS influences are expected to further diminish through midday on 08 May, bringing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. By mid to late day on 08 May and into 09 May, unsettled to active conditions are possible as glancing effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May are anticipated to influence Earth. By 10 May, conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled levels. ####018002422#### FXXX10 KWNP 080031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 08-May 10 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 08-May 10 2024 May 08 May 09 May 10 00-03UT 2.33 1.67 2.67 03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.33 06-09UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.00 3.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 08-May 10 2024 May 08 May 09 May 10 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over the next three days primarily due to the potential from ARs 3663 and 3664. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 07 2024 1630 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 08-May 10 2024 May 08 May 09 May 10 R1-R2 90% 90% 90% R3 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are expected through the forecast period given the evolution of ARs 3663 and 3664 as well as their recent flare history. In addition, a high chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout will persist as well given AR 3663s history of X-class flares.