####018002499#### FXXX10 KWNP 100031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 10-May 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 10-May 12 2024 May 10 May 11 May 12 00-03UT 3.33 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 3.67 7.00 (G3) 5.67 (G2) 06-09UT 3.67 8.33 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 3.00 6.67 (G3) 4.00 12-15UT 2.67 5.67 (G2) 3.67 15-18UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 18-21UT 4.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 21-00UT 5.33 (G1) 4.33 3.67 Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10-12 May due to multiple CMEs from AR 3634 spanning 08-09 May. G3 (Strong) to G4 (Severe or greater) geomagnetic storming is likely on 11 May as the bulk of the activity is expected to arrive during the early hours of the UTC day. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 10-May 12 2024 May 10 May 11 May 12 S1 or greater 50% 50% 50% Rationale: A high chance for S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms will persist through the forecast period due to the potential exhibited by AR 3634, in tandem with current conditions and expected shock arrival enhancements from inbound CMEs. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 09 2024 0913 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 10-May 12 2024 May 10 May 11 May 12 R1-R2 95% 95% 95% R3 or greater 60% 60% 60% Rationale: R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts due to isolated X-class flare activity are likely to continue through the forecast period primarily due to AR 3634. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 100031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 09 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3663 N25W83 37 300 17 FKC 10 BG 3664 S19W34 348 1090 20 FKC 81 BGD 3666 N08W65 19 50 2 HSX 1 A 3667 N27E07 307 130 2 HSX 1 A 3670 N16E31 283 40 3 HSX 1 A 3671 N20E33 281 40 50 HAX 1 A 3672 N18E58 256 30 4 CRO 5 B ####018003464#### FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0. Region 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth and produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest events, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were accompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst signatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME associated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is Earth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME, associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is visible in LASCO imagery but there is not enough data available for analysis at the time of this writing. At present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from 08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of geomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over 10-12 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and X-class flares (R3/Strong) likely, due to the flare potential of Region 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after 09/0600 UTC, following strong flare activity from Region 3664, but remained below 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 10-12 May due to the location and flare potential of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 10-12 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout much of the period with a minor perturbation observed in the magnetic field after 09/1730 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial readings near 450 km/s to between 400-425 km/, total field strength ranged 1-7 nT, and the Bz component varied +3/-5 nT. The phi angle was positive. .Forecast... A weakly enhanced solar wind environment associated with CME activity is expected through most of 10 May. A stronger disturbance is expected in the early hours of 11 May through much of 12 May due to the anticipated arrival of a series of halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 over 08-09 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10 May with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09 May). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11 May with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming expected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced solar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs.