####018003557#### FXXX12 KWNP 100036 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 10 0035 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0. Region 3664 (S19W34, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth and produced two R3 (Strong) and eight R1 (Minor) events. The largest events, an X2.2 flare 09/0913 UTC and an X1.1 at 09/1744 UTC, were accompanied by Type-II and IV radio sweeps, and complex radio burst signatures were observed across discrete frequencies. A halo CME associated with the X2.2 flare at 09/0913 UTC from Region 3664 is Earth-directed with arrival likely on 11 May. Another halo CME, associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC, is undergoing modeling as of the time of this writing. At present, four halo CMEs (associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over 08-09 May) and a CME associated with a filament eruption (from 08 May) are expected to arrive beginning late on 10 May with the bulk of geomagnetic impacts predicted on 11 May. The aforementioned CME associated with the X1.1 flare at 09/1744 UTC will most likely add to the total count, but remains in analysis as of now. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over 10-12 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and X-class flares (R3/Strong) likely, due to the flare potential of Region 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after 09/0600 UTC, following strong flare activity from Region 3664, but remained below 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 10-12 May due to the location and flare potential of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 10-12 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout much of the period with a minor perturbation observed in the magnetic field after 09/1730 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial readings near 450 km/s to between 400-425 km/, total field strength ranged 1-7 nT, and the Bz component varied +3/-5 nT. The phi angle was positive. .Forecast... A weakly enhanced solar wind environment associated with CME activity is expected through most of 10 May. A stronger disturbance is expected in the early hours of 11 May through much of 12 May due to the anticipated arrival of a series of halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 over 08-09 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 10 May with the possible early arrival of a series of CMEs (from 08-09 May). The bulk of the incoming CME(s) is expected to arrive early on 11 May with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming expected, and periods of G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storms likely. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 12 May due to an enhanced solar wind environment following the passage of the 08-09 May CMEs.