####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 110031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 10 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3663 N27W92 37 300 17 FKC 10 BG 3664 S17W48 347 2400 20 FKC 58 BGD 3666 N08W80 19 50 2 HSX 1 A 3667 N28W05 304 140 3 HSX 1 A 3670 N17E14 285 50 3 HAX 6 A 3671 N19E17 281 30 40 HSX 1 A 3672 N18E45 254 140 8 CAI 9 B ####018003699#### FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was high. Region 3664 (S17W48, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the vast majority of X-ray flare activity this period; the largest of which was an X3.9/2b flare at 10/0654 UTC. Strong radio bursts and Type II and IV radio sweeps were associated with the X3.9, and the associated halo CME is expected to arrive on 12 May. Region 3664 continued a trend of growth and was quite dynamic throughout the period, especially in the intermediate spot area. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over 11-13 May, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and X-class flares (R3/Strong) expected, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm levels following strong flaring from Region 3664. The 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels beginning at 10/1335 UTC, and reached S2 (Moderate) levels beginning at 10/1745 UTC with a peak flux of 207 pfu observed at 10/1745 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the day. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at S1 (Minor) storm levels through the first half of 11 May. An additional proton enhancement at S1 levels is likely on 12-13 May due to the flare potential and location of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 11-13 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... This period saw the arrival of an strong interplanetary shock beginning at around 10/1635 UTC. Following initial shock arrival, total field strength increased to a peak of 55 nT and Bz was sustained southward, by as much as -47 nT, after 10/1645 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased sharply to around 700 km/s following shock arrival, with a peak value of 741 km/s observed at 10/1735 UTC. Conditions further enhanced later in the period, seeing Bt reach 74 nT, Bz deviate southward to near -50 nT, and solar winds peak over 800 km/s. .Forecast... A strongly enhanced solar wind environment and CME influences are expected to continue on 11 May. A weaker enhancement is likely on 12-13 May due to CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of at least two halo CMEs that left the Sun over 09-10 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field rapidly increased from unsettled levels to G4, and eventually G5 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels this period following the arrival of a CME. The CME arrived in solar wind data beginning at around 10/1635 UTC, and arrived at Earth at around 10/1656 UTC with a 108 nT deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer. .Forecast... Periods of G3-G5 (Strong-Severe) geomagnetic storms are expected on 11 May due to continued CME activity. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 12 May due to the anticipated arrival of at least two more halo CMEs associated with activity from Region 3664 on 09-10 May, in addition to the onset of CH HSS influences. Unsettled and active conditions are expected on 12 May due to waning CME influences and continued CH HSS influences. ####018002412#### FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 11-May 13 2024 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 11-May 13 2024 May 11 May 12 May 13 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 3.33 03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 5.67 (G2) 3.33 06-09UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 09-12UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.33 12-15UT 6.00 (G2) 3.67 3.33 15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 3.33 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 3.67 3.67 Rationale: G4 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is expected during the first half of 11 May, with a chance for early periods of G5 (Extreme) due to multiple CME arrivals from events spanning 07-09 May. G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to then continue, though wane, on 12 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 11-May 13 2024 May 11 May 12 May 13 S1 or greater 99% 75% 60% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms, currently in progress, are expected to continue through 12 May. Another minor event will remain likely through 13 May given the history of AR 3664. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 10 2024 0654 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 11-May 13 2024 May 11 May 12 May 13 R1-R2 95% 95% 95% R3 or greater 75% 75% 75% Rationale: R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackouts due to isolated X-class flare activity are expected through 13 May due to the flare history of AR 3664.