####018003658#### FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was high. Region 3664 (S18W63, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) reigned as the largest and most productive region on the disk, but was largely unchanged from the previous reporting period. The region produced an X5.8/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 11/0123 UTC, with accompanying Type II and IV sweeps, a Castelli-U burst signature, and an 800 sfu Tenflare observed. An associated fast, halo CME is expected to merge with the preceding in-transit CMEs and arrive at Earth by midday on 12 May. In addition to the X5.8 flare, Region 3664 produced an X1.5/2b flare at 11/1144 UTC and multiple M-class flares throughout the period. New Region 3675 (S12W38, Cro/beta) was numbered but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over 12-14 May, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and X-class flares (R3/Strong) expected, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels at 10/1335 UTC and S2 (Moderate) levels at 10/1745 UTC; a peak flux of 207 pfu was observed at 10/1745 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached the 1 pfu alert threshold at 11/0210 UTC and reached a peak flux of 7 pfu at 11/0210 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the day. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels through 12 May. Additional proton enhancements are likely on 13-14 May due to the flare potential and location of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 12-13 May, and is likely to increase to high levels on 14 May following a prolonged period of elevated geomagnetic activity and enhanced solar wind conditions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was strongly enhanced this period due to continued CME activity. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of around 680 km/s at 11/1000 UTC to a peak of around 920 km/s. Total field reached a peak of 56 nT and Bz was sustained southward, by as much as -50 nT, through much of the period. .Forecast... A strongly enhanced solar wind environment and continued CME influences are expected to continue on 12-13 May, and begin to wane by 14 May as CME influences subside. Some CH HSS influences are expected over 13-14 May, though CME influences are expected to be the primary driver of geomagnetic activity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm periods in response to CME activity. .Forecast... Periods of G4-G5 (Severe-Extreme) geomagnetic storms are likely on 12 May due to continued CME activity and the anticipated arrival of another series of CMEs associated with eruptive activity from Region 3664 over 09-11 May. Periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storming are likely on 13 Apr due to continued CME activity and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 14 May due to waning CME influences and CH HSS influences. ####018002245#### FXXX10 KWNP 120031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 9.00 (NOAA Scale G5). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 00-03UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 4.33 06-09UT 8.00 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 3.00 09-12UT 9.00 (G5) 5.67 (G2) 3.00 12-15UT 8.67 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.67 15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.67 2.67 18-21UT 7.00 (G3) 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.00 3.33 Rationale: G5 (Extreme) storm levels are expected on 12 May due to CME impacts. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue into the early hours of 13 May. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 May as conditions from the the previous days wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 S1 or greater 99% 99% 60% Rationale: S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected through 14 May due to activity originating from AR 3634. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 11 2024 0123 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 R1-R2 95% 95% 95% R3 or greater 75% 75% 75% Rationale: R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are expected all three day. ####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 120031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 11 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3663 N27W99 37 300 17 FKC 10 BG 3664 S18W62 349 2100 23 FKC 43 BGD 3667 N27W18 305 140 3 HSX 1 A 3670 N18E02 285 30 3 CSO 4 B 3671 N24E04 283 30 8 CRO 7 B 3672 N18E30 257 90 5 DAO 4 B 3673 S09E54 233 30 2 HSX 1 A 3674 S14E64 223 80 5 CSO 3 B 3675 S15W29 316 30 3 CRO 5 B