####018001342#### AXXX82 KWNP 140031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 13 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3664 S19W87 348 1170 24 FKC 15 BGD 3667 N27W46 307 80 3 HSX 4 A 3670 N19W23 284 20 3 DAO 5 BG 3671 N24W24 285 20 5 DRO 6 B 3672 N19E03 258 60 6 CSO 4 B 3673 S11E27 234 10 1 HSX 1 A 3674 S11E39 222 90 5 CAO 6 B 3675 S05W57 318 140 6 DSI 13 BG 3676 S21W05 266 100 8 DSI 12 BGD 3678 N09E51 210 10 1 HRX 1 A 3679 S08E59 202 60 7 DAO 4 BG 3680 N17E65 196 30 5 DAO 3 B 3681 S07W20 281 10 2 AXX 3 A ####018003227#### FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3664 (S19W87, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) began its transit of the western limb. The region produced a long-duration M6.6 (R2/Moderate) flare at 13/0944 UTC. Associated with the event were Type II (est. 683 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 1,200 sfu Tenflare. This event resulted in an asymmetric halo CME with a southwesterly bias, first seen in SOHO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 13/0912 UTC. While a majority of the bulk material is expected to miss well ahead of Earths orbit, shock arrival followed by possible glancing effects can not be ruled out for 14-15 May as this particular CME is relatively fast and expansive. Regions 3675 (S05W57, Dsi/beta-gamma), 3670 (N19W23, Dao/beta-gamma), 3676 (S21W05, Dsi/beta-gamma-delta) and 3679 (S08E59, Dao/beta) exhibited growth and evolving magnetic complexity in some cases. Region 3681 (S07W20, Axx-alpha) was numbered this period as it emerged rapidly, but then quickly began to decay as quickly as it formed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at high levels due to M-class flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) primarily associated with AR 3634 through 16 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 13/1400 UTC with a peak flux of 58.8 pfu at 13/1850 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over most of 14 May with a chance of S2 (Moderate) levels. Background levels are expected thereafter. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening CME influences from all the preceding transients. Total field decreased to 5 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward during the later half of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 800 km/s to just under 600 km/s by the end of the period. Phi became negative at approximately 13/1500 UTC. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment with CME influences from a filament eruption from 12 May, the aforementioned CME also from 12 May, and weak positive polarity CH HSS are anticipated for 14-15 May. A return to a more ambient-like environment is likely for 16 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to continued CME activity. Unsettled to active conditions were observed outside after 13/0600 UTC. .Forecast... G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 May due to positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely with any glancing effects from the filament eruption and then aforementioned CME from AR 3664. ####018002320#### FXXX10 KWNP 140031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2024 May 14 May 15 May 16 00-03UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 2.33 2.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.67 18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 4.33 3.00 2.33 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 May and G1 conditions are likely on 15 May as CME influence wanes. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024 May 14 May 15 May 16 S1 or greater 99% 25% 5% Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected on 14 May with a chance on 15 May due to the eruptive potential from Region 3664. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 13 2024 0944 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024 May 14 May 15 May 16 R1-R2 80% 40% 40% R3 or greater 40% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R3 (Minor-Strong) conditions are expected on 14 May due to the flare potential of Region 3664. As the region rotates around the Suns W limb, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities drop to just a chance from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.