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FXXX10 KWNP 141226

DAYTDF



:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2024 May 14 1225 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             3-Day Forecast

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale

G2).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale

G2).



NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2024



             May 14       May 15       May 16

00-03UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.33     

03-06UT       3.33         3.67         2.00     

06-09UT       2.67         3.00         2.67     

09-12UT       2.33         2.33         2.33     

12-15UT       2.33         2.67         2.00     

15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.67     

18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         3.00     

21-00UT       4.33         3.00         2.33     



Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 

May and G1 conditions are likely on 15 May as CME influence wanes.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was

above S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024



              May 14  May 15  May 16

S1 or greater   99%     25%      5%



Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected on 14 May with

a chance on 15 May due to the eruptive potential from Region 3664.





C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24

hours. The largest was at May 13 2024 0944 UTC.



Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024



              May 14        May 15        May 16

R1-R2           80%           40%           40%

R3 or greater   40%           10%           10%



Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected on 14 May due

to the flare potential of Region 3664. As the region rotates around the

Suns W limb, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities drop to just a chance

from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.