####018000510#### AXXX80 KWNP 171333 DAYEVT :Product: Space Weather Event Reports dayevt.txt :Issued: 2024 May 17 0245 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Space Weather Event Reports # :Energetic_Solar_Events: 2024 May 16 #Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0750 0804 0810 3685 M1.0 100 ####018003022#### AXXX81 KWNP 171333 DAYIND :Product: Daily Space Weather Indices dayind.txt :Issued: 2024 May 17 1216 UT # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.spaceweather.gov # # Daily Space Weather Indices # # :Solar_Indices: 2024 May 16 # SWO Sunspot Penticton Radio 90-day Radio GOES X-ray Stanford Solar # Number Flux 10.7cm Flux 10.7cm Bkgd Flux Mean Field 208 207 166 2.20e-06 -999 # :Solar_Region_Data: 2024 May 16 # --------- Flares --------- # Sunspot Area New Spotted X-ray Optical # 10E-6 Hemis. Regions Region C M X S 1 2 3 4 860 2 13 7 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 # :Solar_Radio_Flux: 2024 May 16 # Learmonth San Vito Sag Hill Penticton Penticton Palehua Penticton # 0400 1000 1700 1700 2000 2300 2300 245 19 18 -1 -1 -1 16 -1 410 48 43 -1 -1 -1 34 -1 610 82 86 -1 -1 -1 70 -1 1415 129 148 -1 -1 -1 124 -1 2695 204 204 -1 -1 -1 230 -1 2800 -1 -1 -1 206 207 -1 208 4995 212 259 -1 -1 -1 214 -1 8800 295 316 -1 -1 -1 254 -1 15400 544 551 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 # :Particle_Data: 2024 May 16 # GOES Proton Fluence GOES Electron Fluence GOES Neutron # ---- Protons/cm2-day-sr ---- - Electrons/cm2-day-sr - Location Monitor # ->1 MeV >10 MeV >100 MeV >0.8 MeV >2 MeV West % of bkgd 3.07e+07 1.02e+06 -1.00e+00 -1.00e+00 7.25e+06 75.20 -999.9 # :Geomagnetic_Indices: 2024 May 16 # Middle Latitude Middle Latitude # ----- Fredericksburg ----- --------- Boulder --------- # A K-indices A K-indices # 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 19 2 3 5 4 4 3 2 2 23 2 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 # High Latitude Estimated # --------- College --------- -------------------- Planetary -------------------- # A K-indices A K-indices # 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03 - 06 - 09 - 12 - 15 - 18 - 21 - 24 31 3 4 6 6 3 3 2 2 27 2.67 3.33 6.00 4.67 4.67 3.00 2.33 1.33 ####018001400#### AXXX82 KWNP 171334 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 16 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3667 N28W88 309 50 3 HSX 1 A 3670 N21W62 283 20 5 DAO 2 BG 3671 N21W64 285 10 5 BXO 5 B 3672 N18W37 258 50 6 CAO 5 B 3673 S08W14 235 20 1 HAX 1 A 3674 S12W03 222 130 7 CSO 18 B 3675 S14W0* 321 20 3 DRO 2 B 3676 S20W47 268 90 2 CSO 5 BG 3679 S10E18 203 230 11 ESO 13 BG 3680 N18E22 199 10 1 AXX 2 A 3682 N16E30 191 30 5 CRO 7 BG 3683 S23W21 242 30 7 DRO 8 B 3684 S06E51 170 10 2 BXO 4 B 3685 S13E64 157 180 7 DSO 7 BG ####018002203#### FXXX10 KWNP 171334 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 00-03UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 06-09UT 2.00 2.67 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 S1 or greater 25% 5% 1% Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are at a chance 17 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 18-19 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) exist 17-19 May. ####018003538#### FXXX12 KWNP 171334 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels. The largest flare was a C8.7 from Region 3679 (S10E11, Eso/beta-gamma). Region 3685 (S13E57, Dso/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest region on the disk as it rotates into view. This region also contributed C-class activity during the period. Another region has rotated onto the E limb just to the NE of 3685. It has yet to be assigned a SWPC/NOAA designation. Most of the remaining spotted regions were in decay, while the rest were stable. An erupting filament structure was observed in GONG HA imagery beginning at approximately 16/1500 UTC near N10W32. A subsequent CME can be seen first in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery just before 16/1800 UTC. There also appears to be a wave from the far side of the disk near this time. Analysis and modeling of this event showed a glancing blow on the 20th. However, confidence is low. Another narrow CME is being analyzed that was first visible in C2 at 17/0428 UTC. It appeared to originate from the trailer area of AR3679 and propagate east in GOES SUVI 284 imagery. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare event (R3 Strong radio blackouts) through 19 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains elevated, decreased below S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 16/1455 UTC. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to gradually return to near background levels over the course of 17-19 May. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 19 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME influences. Total field reached a peak of 10 nT. Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~450 km/s to ~380 km/s. Phi was variable. .Forecast... An additional enhancement is likely on 17 May due to the arrival of glancing influences of a CME from 14 May. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly relax over the course of 18 May before yet another enhancement is likely on 19 May, due to glancing influences of a CME from 15 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early in the period, then were at quiet to unsettled levels during the remainder. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 17 May due to glancing CME effects from the 14 May CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 May as any lingering effects weaken. Unsettled to active conditions are expected once again on 19 May, this time due to glancing CME effects from the 15 May CME. It should be noted that there is a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods on 17 and 19 May due to any stronger than anticipated CME effects.