####018001342#### AXXX82 KWNP 180031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 17 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3667 N28W0* 310 50 3 HSX 1 A 3670 N21W76 284 10 5 BXO 2 B 3671 N21W78 286 10 5 BXO 2 B 3672 N18W51 259 40 2 HSX 1 A 3673 S08W28 236 20 1 HSX 1 A 3674 S12W17 222 120 7 CSO 8 B 3676 S20W61 269 100 3 HAX 1 A 3679 S10E04 204 230 11 ESO 13 BG 3680 N18E08 200 10 1 AXX 2 A 3682 N16E16 192 10 1 AXX 1 A 3683 S23W35 242 60 8 DSO 8 B 3685 S13E50 158 220 7 DSO 7 BG 3686 S07E66 140 190 2 HAX 2 A ####018003201#### FXXX12 KWNP 180031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M7.2/2b flare from Region 3685 (S13E50, Dso/beta-gamma). Initial indications show a CME was associated with this event, and will be analyzed as imagery becomes available. This region was relatively unchanged as it rotated further onto the visible disk, but will be closely monitored as it progresses across the disk. Region 3686 (S07E66, Hax/alpha) rotated onto the southeast quadrant of disk and was numbered during the period. Regions 3674 (S12W17, Cso/beta) and 3683 (S23W35, Dso/beta) exhibited slight growth, while the remaining spotted regions were in decay. The narrow CME that was first visible in C2 at 17/0428 UTC was analyzed and deemed to be a miss. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) likely, and a chance for an isolated X-class flare event (R3 Strong radio blackouts) through 19 May. Most of the activity levels should begin to decrease by 20 May, pending the evolution of Region 3685. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased to near background levels. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be near background levels on 18-20 May, with a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) event on 18 May due to the recent M7.2/2b flare event from Region 3685. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 20 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of the 14 May CME. The arrival resulted in stronger enhancements than anticipated, with total field reaching a peak of 17 nT, Bz seeing a maximum southward deflection of -15 nT, and solar wind speeds peaking at 508 km/s. Phi was variable. .Forecast... Elevated enhancements are expected early on 18 May due to the persistent influences of the CME from 14 May. Solar wind parameters should slightly decrease by the end of 18 May, before further enhancements are likely on 19-20 May, due to glancing influences of additional CMEs. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels late in the period following the arrival of the anticipated 14 May CME. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected for the first part of 18 May due to persistent CME effects. The latter half of 18 May should see a return to mostly unsettled levels as CME effects diminish. By 19-20 May, conditions are expected to increase back to unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming, due to glancing CME effects from the 15 May CME. ####018002394#### FXXX10 KWNP 180031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.67 03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.33 06-09UT 4.33 4.00 3.67 09-12UT 4.00 4.00 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.33 3.33 18-21UT 1.67 2.00 3.33 21-00UT 2.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 18 May due to CME effects. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast for 19-20 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 S1 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions exists on 18 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 19-20 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 17 2024 2108 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 R1-R2 55% 35% 35% R3 or greater 25% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are likely on 18 May and a chance for R3 (Strong) exist 18 May. Conditions decay to a chance for R1-R2 conditions and a slight chance for R3 on 19-20 May.