####018001110#### AXXX82 KWNP 190031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 18 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3672 N20W59 256 20 2 HSX 21 A 3673 S08W39 234 10 1 HRX 1 A 3674 S12W27 221 180 6 CSI 13 B 3676 S20W72 267 80 2 HAX 1 A 3679 S08W07 202 260 11 EHO 13 BG 3682 N15E02 193 10 1 AXX 1 A 3683 S23W46 241 120 7 DSI 14 B 3685 S13E42 155 380 12 EHI 10 BG 3686 S06E54 141 120 2 HAX 2 A ####018003214#### FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3679 (S08W07, Eho/beta-gamma) developed additional intermediate spots, and was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C7.2/1n flare at 18/0538 UTC, as well as a few low level C-class flares. Region 3685 (S13E42, Ehi/beta-gamma) continued to show weak development in its intermediate spots, but was far less active this period. Slight growth was observed in Region 3674 (S12W27, Csi/beta) and Region 3683 (S23W46, Dsi/beta). Region 3683 popped off a C3.9/Sf flare at 18/2016 UTC, while Region 3674 remained inactive. The remaining regions were either stable or slightly decaying. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 19-21 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated, but well below S1 (Minor) levels. The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, through 21 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters gradually returned to near-background levels as effects from the 14 May CME arrival relinquished. Total field decreased from a peak of 17 nT to near 6 nT, Bz had a maximum southward deflection to -15 nT but has since become positive, and solar wind speeds have leveled off around 410 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative until approximately 18/1100 UTC when it switched to a positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue near background levels early on 19 May. By mid to late day, the solar wind environment is expected to see the influences of the passing CME from 16 May. Additional enhancements are then expected on 20 May as the CME from 17 May scrapes the Earths magnetosphere. Conditions should begin to return to a more relaxed state on 21 May as CME influence tapers off. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected early on 19 May before increasing to mostly active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 levels, as the CME from 16 May is expected to graze the Earth. By 20 May, unsettled to active levels are expected, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, due to glancing CME effects from the 17 May CME. Mid to late day on 21 May, active levels are expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels as CME effects gradually diminish. ####018002172#### FXXX10 KWNP 190031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 00-03UT 2.00 3.67 4.00 03-06UT 2.33 3.33 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 2.67 12-15UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00 15-18UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67 18-21UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.33 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 May due to weak CME arrival glancing blow potential. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely 19-21 May due to the number of active regions present on the visible solar disk and total flare probability contributions.