####018001702#### FXXX12 KWNP 071231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very low levels. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3628 (N08E21, Cso/beta) and 3633 (S08E66, Cso/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 09 Apr. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 09 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced with solar wind speeds mostly in the 410-485 km/s range. Total field was at 4-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels on 07-08 Apr. Onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences is expected by 09 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods are likely through 08 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09 Apr due to CH HSS onset. ####018002151#### FXXX10 KWNP 071231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 07-Apr 09 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 07-Apr 09 2024 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr 09 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 06-09UT 1.00 1.33 3.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 2.67 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 07-Apr 09 2024 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr 09 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 07-Apr 09 2024 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr 09 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.