####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 090031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 08 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3628 N08W00 3 260 5 CHO 5 B 3629 N06W69 72 20 2 CAO 3 B 3631 N11W48 51 10 1 AXX 1 A 3632 N28E04 359 10 2 HSX 2 A 3633 S07E44 319 160 8 DSI 6 BG 3634 N27E54 309 10 2 AXX 2 A ####018002151#### FXXX10 KWNP 090031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 00-03UT 2.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 3.67 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 09-12UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2024 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 R1-R2 10% 10% 40% R3 or greater 1% 1% 10% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002668#### FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. Regions 3632 (N28E04, Hsx/alpha) and 3634 (N27E54, Axx/alpha) produced C1.2 and C1.4 flares, the latter of which was the largest of the period. Region 3628 (N08W00, Cho/beta) continued to support large, stable, symmetric penumbra and began to show signs of evolving magnetic complexity. Region 3633 (S07E44, Dsi/beta-gamma) exhibited sustained mixed polarity in its intermediate area, but remained relatively quiet. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels through 10 Apr. Activity will likely increase on 11 Apr with the anticipated return of old AR 3615, bringing a chance for M-class flare activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 10 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a transient-like feature followed by a solar sector boundary crossing. At approximately 08/0125 UTC total field increased to 5-7 nT, the Bz component deflected southward, reaching -6 nT, and solar wind speeds increased slightly to ~393 km/s. Then, at approximately 08/0850 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing took place as phi became positive. During this time, total field once again increased to 6-7 nT, the Bz component remained mostly northward, and solar wind speeds averaged ~375 km/s. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to undergo enhancements over the course of 09-10 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, which will begin to wane on 11 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09-10 Apr due to mostly weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 11 Apr as CH HSS effects begin to wane.