####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 110031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 10 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3628 N08W28 4 260 4 HHX 4 A 3629 N05W98 75 10 1 CAO 1 B 3633 S08E19 317 130 8 DSO 6 BG 3634 N26E23 313 10 3 BXO 2 B 3635 N19E48 289 10 7 BXO 2 B ####018002151#### FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 11-Apr 13 2024 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.00 1.33 1.67 06-09UT 2.33 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 2.33 1.67 2.33 21-00UT 2.67 1.67 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 11-Apr 13 2024 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 11-Apr 13 2024 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 R1-R2 10% 25% 25% R3 or greater 1% 5% 5% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. ####018002967#### FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. A flurry of low level C-class flares was unleashed between 10/0552 UTC and 10/1748 UTC from what appeared to be AR 3629, which has now rotated well beyond the western limb. Region 3634 (N26E23, Bxo/beta) was the culprit for a C2.6 flare at 10/0222 UTC. Region 3628 (N08W28, Hhx/alpha) exhibited decay and remained quiet. Region 3633 (S08E19, Dso/beta-gamma) continued to support a weakly mixed magnetic configuration in its intermediate area, but remained quiet as well. Region 3635 (N19E48, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. From ~10/1935-2045 UTC, an approximately 15 degree long filament, centered near N15E15, was observed lifting off the solar disk. Corresponding dimming was observed in SUVI 195 Angstrom imagery, but lack of available LASCO COR2 coronagraph imagery prevented any initial analysis. Analysis will be conducted when coronagraph imagery becomes available. As of this writing, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely to continue at low levels on 11 Apr with a slight chance for M-class flare activity. Probabilities increase for 12-13 Apr to a chance for isolated M-class flare activity with the anticipated return of old AR 3615. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 13 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field ranged 1-7 nT, the Bz component was +/- 6 nT with no significant, sustained southward deflections, and solar wind speeds averaged between 390-480 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are anticipated to wane over the course of 11 Apr, with a return to nominal conditions on 12 Apr. Disturbances are expected once again on 13 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected on 11 and 13 Apr due to CH HSS effects. A primarily quiet environment is expected on 12 Apr.