####018002150#### FXXX10 KWNP 150031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 00-03UT 3.00 3.00 1.33 03-06UT 3.33 3.00 1.33 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 4.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 15-18UT 2.00 1.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Apr due to CME effects and CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 14 2024 0232 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 15-17 Apr. ####018001168#### AXXX82 KWNP 150031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 14 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3628 N08W77 1 120 2 HAX 2 A 3633 S08W38 322 80 4 CSO 2 B 3634 N26W30 314 290 9 DKI 18 B 3635 N21W00 284 20 6 CSO 5 B 3636 S21E33 251 80 3 CSO 4 B 3637 S12E53 231 40 4 CSO 4 B 3638 S17E58 226 30 1 HSX 1 A 3639 N29E62 222 30 5 CAO 7 B 3640 N21E58 226 10 1 AXX 1 A 3641 N11E13 271 70 5 DAO 8 B ####018002413#### FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an impulsive M4.3/1f flare at 14/0232 UTC from Region 3637 (S12E53, Cso/beta). The majority of the C-class flaring was observed from Region 3639 (N29E62, Cao/beta), which grew in sunspot count and area. Slight growth and consolidation was observed in Regions 3634 (N26W30, Dki/beta) and 3641 (N11E13, Dao/beta). A faint CME was observed off the NE limb at 14/1124 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery related to a C5.0/Sf flare at 14/1101 UTC from Region 3636 (S21E33, Cso/beta). Analysis of this event is in progress. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 17 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters exhibited a small increase in solar wind speed from approximately 320 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. A solar sector boundary crossing from positive to negative was observed at 14/0636 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on 15 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of the 12 Apr CME, in addition to CH HSS influences. Solar wind parameters are expected to recover to nominal levels on 16-17 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely, on 15 Apr due to the passage of a CME from 12 Apr combined with CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Apr with mostly quiet conditions on 17 Apr as CME/HSS influences wane.