####018016821#### FGUS73 KFSD 291406 ESFFSD IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-MNC033-063-081-083- 101-105-117-133-NEC043-051-SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043- 053-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-021415- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 806 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook... This spring flood and water resource outlook is for the Sioux Falls Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers portions of central and southeastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, northwestern Iowa and far northeast Nebraska. The main river basins include the Missouri, James, Big Sioux, Vermillion, Redwood, West Fork of the Des Moines, Little Sioux, Rock, Floyd Rivers. .Flood Outlook Summary... A current lack of snow cover, largely thawed ground, and minimal remaining river ice currently points toward a near to below normal flood risk over the next 90 days. With this said, additional heavy precipitation events through early spring could change the flood risk with future precipitation likely the primary driver in any potential flood risk. Changes to the flood risk factors will continue to be monitored and updates provided in future outlooks. .Temperature and Precipitation... Long term precipitation deficits have existed across most location over the past few years. Recent precipitation over the past few months has shown values closer to or even above normal. Above normal temperatures over the past 90 days have allowed for decreasing river ice and thawing ground. Looking forward, a storm system late on March 3rd into the 4th may bring precipitation to the region but any precipitation amounts are expected to be insignificant. Over the next two weeks, temperatures will continue to trend above normal. Some signal exists for additional precipitation the week of March 3rd through 9th. Medium range outlooks through the end of March favor above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Long range outlooks through May have equal odds of above/below/near normal precipitation and temperatures. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... Above normal temperatures eroded the vast majority of snow cover in late January and early February. Light snow from earlier this week carried minimal water content and any lingering snow cover will melt by weekend with warming temperatures. Below normal (if any) snow cover exists across the broader region and upstream drainage basins. .Soil Conditions and Frost Depth... The late autumn precipitation and an early snowmelt season have resulted in soil moisture profiles within normal ranges, slightly drier east of I-29 and wetter west of I-29. Shallow frost depths returned in some locations recently but this should again be short lived with warming temperatures over the coming days. .River and Lake Conditions... Entering the winter freeze-up months, river levels and streamflows for the James River and points west are generally running near to above normal with most other locations running near to slightly below. Reports also indicate area stock ponds and wetlands may have adequate room for additional storage of any runoff. .Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Floyd River Sheldon 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 5 36 <5 23 <5 <5 Alton 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 5 39 <5 18 <5 10 Le Mars 20.0 21.0 24.0 : <5 20 <5 12 <5 <5 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5 :Floyd River Merrill 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 10 <5 8 <5 7 James 26.0 30.0 34.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Sioux River Milford 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 33 78 17 66 10 53 Spencer 10.0 14.0 16.0 : 22 69 <5 8 <5 <5 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 8.0 9.5 10.5 : 6 43 <5 13 <5 6 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 18.0 19.5 21.0 : <5 39 <5 11 <5 <5 Cherokee 17.0 21.0 24.0 : 6 50 <5 6 <5 <5 Correctionville 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 20.0 22.0 26.5 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :Perry Creek Sioux City 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Brookings 9.0 10.5 12.0 : 7 46 <5 34 <5 14 Dell Rapids 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 40 <5 18 <5 16 Sioux Falls I-90 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 43 <5 17 <5 8 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 43 <5 17 <5 8 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 16.0 18.0 31.0 : <5 22 <5 18 <5 <5 :Split Rock Creek Corson 8.5 11.0 14.0 : <5 14 <5 10 <5 <5 :Rock River Luverne 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 18 <5 10 <5 <5 Rock Rapids 13.0 16.0 19.0 : <5 32 <5 18 <5 9 Rock Valley 16.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 18 <5 13 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 20.5 24.0 27.0 : 14 50 5 31 <5 18 Akron 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 16 51 6 46 <5 19 Sioux City 32.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :James River Huron 11.5 15.0 19.0 : 22 53 10 41 6 30 Forestburg 12.0 14.5 18.0 : 23 52 12 43 5 29 Mitchell 17.0 21.5 24.0 : 27 58 11 38 6 28 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 8.0 13.0 15.0 : 37 36 9 21 7 17 :James River Scotland 13.0 16.0 18.0 : 18 49 12 38 8 29 Yankton 12.0 16.0 21.0 : 15 41 11 37 6 27 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 12 <5 10 <5 <5 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 7 44 <5 39 <5 30 :Vermillion River Davis 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 11 53 8 41 <5 16 Wakonda 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 11 48 11 46 10 40 Vermillion 21.0 22.0 30.0 : 8 39 6 39 <5 <5 :Redwood River Marshall 14.0 15.0 16.5 : 9 12 7 8 6 7 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 : 5 13 <5 10 <5 <5 Windom 19.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 11 <5 7 <5 <5 Jackson 12.0 12.5 14.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :Missouri River South Sioux City 30.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 9 <5 8 <5 6 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.9 10.4 12.1 Alton 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.9 8.2 9.5 12.1 Le Mars 9.8 10.1 10.9 13.1 14.4 15.8 18.4 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 3.9 4.1 4.9 6.5 7.7 9.6 12.3 :Floyd River Merrill 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.6 4.5 8.1 James 8.5 8.8 9.3 10.2 11.3 12.2 16.2 :Little Sioux River Milford 7.7 7.8 8.2 10.7 12.6 16.2 17.2 Spencer 5.0 5.1 6.2 8.6 9.7 12.0 12.5 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 2.8 2.9 3.3 4.3 5.4 7.5 8.4 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 6.8 6.8 7.7 9.4 11.5 15.4 17.0 Cherokee 8.7 9.1 10.3 11.7 14.2 16.1 17.8 Correctionville 5.0 5.3 6.4 8.0 10.6 12.2 14.7 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 7.0 7.3 8.6 10.4 11.6 13.9 15.8 :Perry Creek Sioux City 7.3 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.7 :Big Sioux River Brookings 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.4 6.4 8.2 9.2 Dell Rapids 3.7 3.8 4.4 5.3 7.7 10.6 11.9 Sioux Falls I-90 5.3 5.3 5.9 6.8 9.7 11.1 11.9 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 5.3 5.3 5.9 6.8 9.7 11.1 11.9 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.9 9.9 13.0 14.5 :Split Rock Creek Corson 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.0 4.7 6.3 6.8 :Rock River Luverne 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.7 7.1 7.4 Rock Rapids 7.2 7.3 8.0 8.3 9.6 11.2 12.3 Rock Valley 5.5 5.7 6.6 7.5 10.0 12.3 13.6 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 12.1 12.3 13.4 14.3 18.2 21.4 23.8 Akron 5.6 5.9 7.3 8.6 13.6 16.8 19.0 Sioux City 12.4 12.6 13.7 14.9 18.3 21.1 23.7 :James River Huron 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.9 14.9 20.2 Forestburg 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 10.9 15.3 18.6 Mitchell 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 17.8 22.0 24.5 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 2.6 2.6 2.6 5.9 9.5 12.7 16.1 :James River Scotland 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 10.8 17.1 19.2 Yankton 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.9 7.1 18.0 22.1 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.4 4.2 4.9 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 7.2 9.4 12.3 :Vermillion River Davis 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4 8.3 12.5 13.3 Wakonda 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.4 6.9 16.6 17.5 Vermillion 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 7.4 18.8 23.4 :Redwood River Marshall 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.7 11.7 13.7 16.8 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 1419.0 1419.2 1419.5 1419.9 1421.9 1423.3 1425.1 Windom 11.1 11.2 11.4 12.4 15.1 17.2 17.9 Jackson 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.7 9.8 10.6 10.9 :Missouri River South Sioux City 12.1 12.3 13.5 14.3 15.9 20.3 30.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 05/31/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Alton 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 Le Mars 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.9 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Floyd River Merrill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 James 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 :Little Sioux River Milford 7.6 7.5 7.2 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.6 Spencer 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.1 Cherokee 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.4 6.2 6.0 Correctionville 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 :West Fork Ditch Hornick 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 :Perry Creek Sioux City 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 :Big Sioux River Brookings 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 Dell Rapids 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 Sioux Falls I-90 5.2 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 5.2 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 :Split Rock Creek Corson 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 :Rock River Luverne 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Rock Rapids 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Rock Valley 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 11.8 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.4 Akron 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.5 Sioux City 12.2 12.2 11.7 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 :James River Huron 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 Forestburg 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 Mitchell 12.6 12.3 11.5 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 :James River Scotland 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Yankton 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 5.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Vermillion River Davis 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Wakonda 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Vermillion 2.4 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 :Redwood River Marshall 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 1418.8 1418.7 1418.5 1418.5 1418.3 1418.2 1418.1 Windom 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.6 Jackson 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.9 :Missouri River South Sioux City 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/fsd for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on March 14th. $$ Kalin ####018019413#### FGUS73 KARX 291407 ESFARX IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169- WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-282359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 800 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...SECOND 2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... The overall risk for flooding this spring is below normal along the mainstem of the Mississippi River and its associated tributaries across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. The final planned spring flood outlook release will be on Thursday, March 14th, 2024. This information is the second of three planned spring flood and water resources outlooks providing spring snowmelt and flood potential information for this upcoming spring. The information that goes into this outlook was collected from a number of National Weather Service partners including the United States Geological Survey, US Army Corps of Engineers, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, US Drought Monitor, Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction. This outlook is a summary of the past and present basin conditions for parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin. ...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS... The overall flood risk for the Upper Mississippi River Basin is BELOW NORMAL. ...Past Precipitation... During autumn 2023, it was mainly drier than normal (up to 4” drier than normal) across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and south of Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin. Meanwhile, it was wetter-than- normal (1 to 6” above normal) north of Interstate 90. Much of this precipitation fell (2 to 7”) from October 23 through October 25. As typical during El Niño, much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley was drier than normal during meteorological winter. Precipitation deficits ranged from near normal to 2” drier than normal north of a Charles City, IA to Black River Falls, WI line. Precipitation surpluses were up 1” in southwest Wisconsin. This precipitation during autumn and winter was not enough to alleviate the large precipitation deficits that had increased during the 2023 growing season (since April 1). Precipitation departures ranged from 8 to just over 19 along and south of Interstate 90. The driest areas were in northeast Iowa. Due to this, these areas are still experiencing moderate (D1) to extreme drought (D3). The last time that it has been this dry going into a spring was back in 2004. During that year, nearly 60% of the La Crosse Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) was in severe (D2) drought. Since the last outlook, we have not seen enough additional precipitation to tip the flood probability scales the other direction. Across the region, precipitation values for the past two weeks have ranged from around 0.25 inches up to 0.75 inches near the Twin Cities in Minnesota. ...River Conditions... Overall, the amount of water currently moving through our rivers is near the long-term average. Due to a December rain and an earlier- than-normal snow melt, a few rivers are flowing above normal, but that’s simply an artifact of rivers normally not adding additional inflow this early in the year. ...Soil Moisture and Frost Depths... Last September, most of the region was in a drought status. Since then, parts of the area have experienced heavier rains in October and again in December. While drought conditions have improved for some, significant areas of drought still prevail, especially across parts of Iowa. Due to the abnormally warm temperatures this winter, frost depths are well below normal for this time of year. Our entire region is free of frost and any future precipitation will be able to absorb into the soils freely. ...Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... A strong El-Niño this winter has played a big role in one of the warmest winters on record across the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Any snow that the region has received has largely melted already, leaving little to no snowpack left for a spring melt runoff. ...River Ice Conditions... The near record-setting warmth this winter has led to well-below- normal river ice conditions across the region. ...Weather Outlook... The above conditions can and often change. The biggest factor affecting spring flood risks is the weather conditions during the sensitive period of melting snow. This year, without the presence of a snowpack, future precipitation is the main driver of any flood risk moving forward. For March, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a slight shift in the probabilities toward warmer than normal along and north of Interstate 94. Elsewhere, there are equal chances of warmer-, near-, and colder-than-normal. There are equal chances of wetter-, near-, and drier-than-normal. Normal temperatures in March range from 27 to 30°F north of Wisconsin Highway 29 and from 30 to 35°F elsewhere. March precipitation normals range from 1.6 to 2 inches along and north of Interstate 94, and from 2 to 2.4 across the remainder of the area. This forecast will be updated on Friday, March 1. During the 7 strong El Niños since 1949-50, 4 have been among the warmest third, and the remaining 3 were near normal. Precipitation was highly variable with 4 being among the wettest third, 2 among the driest third, and 1 near normal. Snowfall was also highly variable with 4 among the third least, 2 among the snowiest third, and 1 near normal. For spring, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently shows around a 40 percent chance for above-normal temperatures through March, April, and May. There are equal chances for wetter, near, and drier- than-normal precipitation this spring. The normal precipitation range during these 3 months ranges from roughly 8 to 11 inches of precipitation. ...Definitions... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundations of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations may be needed. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundations of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations will be needed. ...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 26 <5 8 <5 <5 Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 24 61 <5 23 <5 8 Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 6 28 <5 15 <5 6 Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 9 39 <5 9 <5 5 Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 13 47 <5 24 <5 8 Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 8 37 <5 16 <5 6 La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 7 30 <5 14 <5 7 La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 12 49 6 26 <5 8 Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 16 51 <5 14 <5 7 Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 12 <5 7 <5 <5 Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 5 25 <5 9 <5 <5 McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 14 55 <5 32 <5 10 Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 11 47 <5 16 <5 6 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5 Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 22 <5 8 <5 7 :Turtle Creek Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 7 17 <5 11 <5 <5 :Turkey River Spillville 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 5 42 <5 31 <5 16 Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 16 45 5 18 <5 <5 Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 10 34 8 20 5 8 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 10 23 6 10 <5 <5 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 10 22 8 10 <5 <5 :Black River Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 28 62 12 30 <5 8 Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 23 56 11 39 <5 <5 :Kickapoo River La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 13 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 7 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 25 42 <5 7 <5 <5 Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 16 <5 6 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 18 <5 7 <5 <5 :Yellow River Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 28 76 9 47 <5 16 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Lake City 7.7 8.0 9.8 11.4 13.6 15.1 15.8 Wabasha 7.9 8.1 9.2 10.2 11.9 12.9 13.4 Alma Dam 4 5.6 5.8 7.0 8.3 10.5 11.9 12.7 MN City Dam 5 651.9 652.2 653.5 655.0 657.5 659.1 660.4 Winona Dam 5A 646.7 646.9 648.7 650.4 653.1 654.8 656.4 Winona 6.0 6.2 7.1 8.7 11.5 13.3 14.8 Trempealeau 640.6 640.9 642.1 643.3 645.4 646.7 648.0 La Crescent 633.1 633.5 635.3 636.6 639.1 640.3 641.6 La Crosse 5.7 6.0 7.2 8.5 10.9 12.1 13.2 Genoa 623.4 623.9 626.1 627.6 630.1 631.3 632.6 Lansing 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.8 11.8 13.2 14.9 Lynxville 615.6 616.0 618.2 619.5 622.0 623.5 625.2 McGregor 8.6 9.2 10.7 12.0 14.5 17.0 18.3 Guttenberg 7.2 8.4 9.8 11.2 13.4 15.2 16.1 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 5.8 6.2 7.2 9.4 10.5 12.5 16.8 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.3 10.9 :Root River Houston 3.7 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.7 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.6 5.4 6.9 :Cedar River Lansing 10.8 11.3 12.4 13.6 14.8 15.6 16.0 Austin 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.9 9.4 10.7 11.3 Charles City 2.8 3.2 4.1 5.8 7.5 9.4 10.9 :Turtle Creek Austin 2.5 2.8 4.4 5.9 7.6 9.6 11.2 :Turkey River Spillville 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.9 4.9 6.2 10.2 Elkader 6.6 7.2 7.6 8.9 10.6 13.7 16.4 Garber 7.2 7.7 8.6 10.3 13.1 16.9 23.9 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.5 Decorah 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.6 6.6 8.4 Dorchester 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 11.0 13.8 17.9 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 4.1 4.2 5.6 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.1 Dodge 6.7 6.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.6 11.2 :Black River Neillsville 6.0 7.2 8.0 9.3 10.5 12.8 13.2 Black River Falls 39.9 41.1 42.5 44.4 47.3 51.1 52.2 Galesville 6.9 7.8 8.9 10.3 11.9 13.1 13.4 :Kickapoo River La Farge 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.3 7.7 9.1 9.9 Viola 8.6 9.2 9.7 10.3 11.5 13.0 13.4 Readstown 5.5 6.2 7.1 8.5 10.4 11.4 11.9 Soldiers Grove 6.5 6.9 8.4 9.8 12.1 12.9 13.3 Gays Mills 7.9 8.3 9.3 11.3 12.9 13.6 14.0 Steuben 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.7 10.4 11.5 11.9 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.5 6.2 7.2 7.9 :Yellow River Necedah 11.5 11.8 13.0 13.9 15.4 16.4 17.1 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages At Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Lake City 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 Wabasha 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.9 Alma Dam 4 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 MN City Dam 5 651.4 651.4 651.3 651.2 651.2 651.1 651.1 Winona Dam 5A 646.1 646.1 646.0 645.9 645.8 645.7 645.6 Winona 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 Trempealeau 640.2 640.0 639.8 639.7 639.6 639.5 639.4 La Crescent 632.3 632.1 631.8 631.7 631.5 631.4 631.3 La Crosse 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 Genoa 622.4 622.1 621.8 621.5 621.2 620.9 620.8 Lansing 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 Lynxville 614.6 614.1 613.9 613.5 613.1 612.7 612.4 McGregor 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 Guttenberg 6.1 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.9 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Root River Houston 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 :Cedar River Lansing 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 Austin 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 Charles City 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 :Turtle Creek Austin 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 :Turkey River Spillville 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 Elkader 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 Garber 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Decorah 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Dorchester 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Dodge 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 :Black River Neillsville 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 Black River Falls 36.6 36.4 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.0 36.0 Galesville 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 :Kickapoo River La Farge 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 Viola 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 Readstown 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 Soldiers Grove 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 Gays Mills 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.8 Steuben 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 :Yellow River Necedah 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. All of this information is also available in graphical format on the internet at: http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse The next outlook will be issued March 14th. $$ JAW