####018003111#### FGUS71 KCLE 291457 ESFCLE OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101- 103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049- 071500- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 957 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...FLOOD THREAT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID MARCH FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER WATERSHEDS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... This is the fifth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks through early spring describing the potential for flooding across central and northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rivers in the region are divided by those that drain north into Lake Erie and those that drain south into the Ohio River. These outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions, including snowpack and projected rainfall, which can either favor an above, average, or below normal flood risk over the coming two weeks. Flooding could occur with water levels having minor impacts even with a below normal outlook. This outlook is valid for the two- week period from February 29th to March 14th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... No snow pack currently exists across the region, aside from trace amounts in the snowbelt region of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. ...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, current and 28 day streamflow averages across the region are below to near normal across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Soil moisture is near to slightly below normal across the region. ...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS... No ice is present on area rivers and streams. ...WATER SUPPLY... The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reservoirs are near normal winter pool elevations. Reservoir storage capacity is generally 90% to 100% at the projects. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... For the 6 to 10 day (Mar 5 to 9) and 8 to 14 day (Mar 7 to 13) outlook periods, above normal temperatures and precipitation is favored for the region. The latest seasonal outlooks for March through May favor above normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation across the region. ...SUMMARY... The threat for flooding over the next two weeks is slightly below to near normal for this time of year. It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at any time. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=CLE. Observed and 5 day forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/cleveland. Ten day streamflow ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. The sixth Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday, March 14th. $$ Greenawalt ####018009704#### FGUS73 KAPX 291458 ESFAPX MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-097- 101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-301458- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 958 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN... THE SPRING 2024 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A BELOW AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS. THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...MANISTEE... RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS. THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Manistee River Sherman 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Au Sable River Red Oak 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rifle River Sterling 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 27 63 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pine River Rudyard 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Tobacco River Beaverton 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS) AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS). FOR EXAMPLE...THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET...HAS A 27 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 36 PERCENTAGE POINTS BELOW NORMAL. DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL PROBABILITY OF THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS 63 PERCENT. THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Manistee River Sherman 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.6 14.7 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.0 :Au Sable River Red Oak 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.6 :Rifle River Sterling 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.1 6.1 7.5 8.1 :Pine River Rudyard 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.9 8.5 9.6 10.1 :Tobacco River Beaverton 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.9 8.1 9.0 CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...EXCEPT FOR THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET IS AROUND 25 PERCENT. THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Manistee River Sherman 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.1 :Boardman River Mayfield--Brown B 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 :Au Sable River Red Oak 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 :Rifle River Sterling 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 :Pine River Rudyard 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 :Tobacco River Beaverton 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS... AN HISTORICALLY WARM WINTER IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE BELOW NORMAL SNOWMELT FLOOD PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS SPRING...CONTRIBUTING TO A MINIMAL SNOWPACK. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) WILL LIKELY END UP 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST WINTERS. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL THUS FAR SINCE JULY 1 IS RUNNING ABOUT 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAJORITY OF THAT SNOWFALL OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 9-23 WHERE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR SEASONAL TOTAL THUS FAR IN JUST THAT TWO WEEK PERIOD. AS OF FEBRUARY 29...SNOW DEPTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF A CADILLAC TO ALPENA LINE...WHILE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN RANGED FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL MONTHS OF 2023 (SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER) WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...TRENDING BELOW NORMAL (50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL) CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY. FOR THE WINTER PERIOD (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY)... PRECIPITATION WAS 50-75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST. MARY'S RIVER IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ELSEWHERE. SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BASED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR FEBRUARY 29 INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL AS ACROSS MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MOST GAUGING STATIONS ON AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ICE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE WARM WEATHER. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING THE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THIS PAST WINTER. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NO DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION (EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION). ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... A FINAL UPDATE TO THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 14. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS. $$ JPB