####018012022#### FGUS73 KPAH 291541 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-141200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 938 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and warmer winter across the entire region. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... While some rain fell earlier this week along a cold front, rain totals were negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations across the region for the month of February have been less than one inch. While there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger rivers, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood stage. Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 30 percent of normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running 20 to 40 percent of normal. Most areas are near to below normal average flow. While surface soil moisture has significantly rebounded since the extremely dry fall and early winter last year, deeper soil moisture and longer term accumulative averages remain below normal. There is no frost depth in our region. There is no significant snow in either the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 25 41 16 26 <5 6 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 60 71 26 33 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 71 66 47 39 24 21 :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 34 45 <5 8 <5 <5 Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 58 69 <5 8 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 79 <5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 27 37 <5 9 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 69 83 21 38 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 63 76 <5 9 <5 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 67 63 52 50 21 18 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 44 43 37 35 25 24 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 77 83 24 27 <5 <5 :Black River Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 15 34 <5 17 <5 10 :Current River Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 10 24 <5 14 <5 9 Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7 :Mississippi River Hickman 34.0 40.0 43.0 : 72 >95 51 69 35 58 Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 80 <5 61 <5 41 New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 50 65 17 27 <5 <5 Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 49 75 27 57 12 34 :Ohio River Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : 73 94 50 64 22 38 Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : 69 91 52 64 24 45 Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : 58 69 44 53 8 15 Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : 49 62 9 20 7 15 :St. Francis River Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 8 25 7 23 <5 21 Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 52 55 15 19 <5 9 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 53 56 13 14 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 53 73 31 47 14 16 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 15.1 15.7 16.5 18.0 23.0 27.9 29.8 Paradise 373.5 374.8 378.2 381.1 386.3 389.6 390.8 :Little Wabash River Carmi 19.1 21.8 26.1 31.7 34.9 36.6 37.6 :Ohio River Evansville 28.2 29.6 33.5 37.8 41.0 42.5 42.6 Golconda 32.7 33.8 35.1 38.2 41.1 44.2 46.4 Henderson 24.0 25.2 28.8 33.1 36.3 37.9 38.1 Mount Vernon 28.2 29.0 32.1 36.4 39.9 41.7 42.0 Newburgh Dam 31.1 32.7 37.4 41.0 43.7 44.4 44.6 Owensboro 28.4 29.6 33.5 36.6 40.2 41.3 41.6 Shawneetown 27.1 29.1 31.5 37.4 42.2 45.4 47.1 J.T. Myers Dam 29.4 31.8 34.5 39.7 43.2 45.5 47.2 :Patoka River Princeton 11.6 12.9 17.0 20.2 22.4 24.9 25.8 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 9.3 10.1 11.1 13.4 20.1 23.1 23.4 :Wabash River New Harmony 10.7 12.4 15.3 17.6 19.9 21.0 21.6 :Black River Poplar Bluff 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 13.5 17.1 18.2 :Current River Van Buren 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 7.0 14.5 18.8 :Mississippi River Hickman 29.5 30.1 33.0 40.4 44.8 50.6 52.5 Cape Girardeau 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Madrid 24.3 24.9 27.1 34.1 37.7 41.9 43.9 Thebes 20.0 20.1 26.8 32.8 37.4 42.9 46.7 :Ohio River Cairo 35.2 36.5 39.5 46.9 51.5 57.9 59.6 Olmsted Lock and 31.0 31.7 33.8 42.9 46.6 51.9 55.0 Paducah 27.3 28.3 33.2 41.8 46.5 50.6 54.9 Smithland Dam 26.2 27.3 30.2 39.8 43.8 47.0 52.3 :St. Francis River Fisk 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 13.5 16.9 25.4 Patterson 6.8 7.3 11.0 16.4 19.0 28.2 30.0 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 11.8 13.7 16.9 20.2 23.0 27.7 32.3 Murphysboro 12.8 14.1 18.2 24.5 30.4 41.5 42.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 Paradise 367.9 367.5 366.2 365.6 365.2 365.0 364.9 :Little Wabash River Carmi 5.8 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 :Ohio River Evansville 17.5 16.1 15.2 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.6 Golconda 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 Henderson 15.0 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.4 12.2 12.1 Mount Vernon 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 Newburgh Dam 17.7 16.5 15.4 14.3 13.6 13.3 13.1 Owensboro 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 Shawneetown 19.6 18.4 17.5 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.2 J.T. Myers Dam 19.7 17.8 16.2 14.9 14.0 13.0 12.9 :Patoka River Princeton 6.7 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 :Wabash River New Harmony 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 8.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.7 Murphysboro 7.5 6.6 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... Weather will be quiet through the weekend. While there is a small chance for some light rain overnight tonight, the weekend looks dry. The next chance of rain will not be until early next week. Seven day rain totals may be around one inch. The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 7 through 13 calls for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are 45 to 50 degrees and rainfall during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches. The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation. This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal precipitation. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued March 14 2024. $$ ####018010979#### FGUS73 KLBF 291544 ESFLBF NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091-101- 103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-130000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service North Platte NE 944 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook Number 2... ...A Below Average Flood Potential from Ice Jams and Spring Snowmelt... This Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook is for the North Platte Hydrologic Service Area, which covers western and north central Nebraska. The river basins include: the North Platte and South Platte Rivers and the Platte River in western Nebraska, Frenchman Creek and Stinking Water Creek in southwest Nebraska, the Loup and Dismal Rivers in the Sandhills of Nebraska, and portions of the Elkhorn and Niobrara Rivers in north central Nebraska. .Flood Outlook Summary... A below average flood potential is expected from spring snowmelt and ice jams. No snow cover currently exists across western and north central Nebraska. Rivers are currently ice free. Temperatures have remained above normal the last two weeks of February. Ice jams are not expected on rivers, unless colder temperatures return. The potential for rainfall induced flash flooding is not quantifiable. This type of flooding is most likely to occur during the late spring and summer months. .Snow Cover and Mountain Snowpack... As of February 29th, no snow cover existed across western and north central Nebraska. March and April are typically snowy months, so additional snowfall is possible. Snowpack conditions in the North Platte and South Platte River Basins in Colorado and Wyoming are currently below average. Snow water equivalents ranged from near 95 percent of average for the North Platte Basin and 93 percent of average for the South Platte Basin. These values are below last year. A below average flood potential is expected from mountain snowmelt runoff. .Reservoir Conditions... Normal operations are ongoing at reservoirs along the North Platte River for this time of year. Releases from these dams have been limited through the winter months, with inflows generally coming from melting snow. Because of these operations, reservoir levels have risen though the winter months. The current reservoir storage across Wyoming, as well as Lake McConaughy, are below average for this time of year. .Soil Conditions and Frost Depths... Soil moisture was near normal to below normal across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska to above to much above normal across north central Nebraska. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions remained across far southwest Nebraska, which includes the Frenchman Creek Basin. Otherwise, no drought conditions currently exist. As of February 29th, soil temperature sensors indicate 4 inch soil temperatures range from 32 to 37 degrees, with some frost in the top three inches reported. .River and Lake Ice Conditions... Monthly average streamflow was average to above average across the central and northern Sandhills, including the Niobrara, Elkhorn and Loup River Basins. Average to much below average streamflow was indicated across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska, including the Platte River Basin, and Frenchman Creek Basin. Lakes and rivers were currently ice free. .Seasonal Precipitation... Precipitation so far this water year, since October 1, 2023, has ranged from near normal to below normal across the southeast panhandle into west central and southwest Nebraska to much above normal across Custer County northward across the eastern half of north central Nebraska. These areas which received from 5 to 11 inches, were from 130 to over 200 percent of normal. .Weather Outlooks... Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain above average, with El Nino conditions. The outlook indicates weak El Nino conditions will persist into March and April. For the late winter and spring months, this weather pattern will typically favor near normal temperatures with above normal precipitation across the Central Plains. According to the Climate Prediction Center, as of February 29th, the latest 8 to 14 day outlook calls for above average temperatures with above average precipitation. The latest 30 day outlook for March calls for equal chances for above, below or average temperatures and above average precipitation. The latest 90 day outlook for March, April and May indicates near average temperatures with near average precipitation going into this spring. .Numerical Weather Outlooks... For the Frenchman Creek, North Platte, South Platte, Platte, Elkhorn, and Niobrara Rivers...long range probabilistic outlooks are issued for the water year from December through May. All other months and locations are 90 day probabilistic outlooks. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :North Platte River Lisco 4.0 5.0 6.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lewellen 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 12 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 North Platte 6.0 6.5 7.0 : 9 16 6 13 6 12 :South Platte River Roscoe 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 12 13 8 8 7 7 North Platte 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 8 8 7 7 5 <5 :Elkhorn River Ewing 1N 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Brady North Chann 7.5 9.0 11.0 : 21 26 14 14 6 7 :Frenchman Creek Palisade 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Stinking Water Creek Palisade 2NW 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Niobrara River Sparks 6.0 12.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :North Platte River Lisco 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.1 Lewellen 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.1 8.2 8.5 North Platte 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.9 7.4 :South Platte River Roscoe 4.6 4.6 4.8 6.6 8.5 9.2 13.9 North Platte 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.4 10.7 11.3 15.1 :Elkhorn River Ewing 1N 2.9 2.9 3.1 5.0 6.5 8.2 8.8 :Platte River Brady North Chann 2.0 2.3 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.2 11.3 :Frenchman Creek Palisade 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0 5.0 7.1 7.5 :Stinking Water Creek Palisade 2NW 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 5.5 6.4 :Niobrara River Sparks 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :North Platte River Lisco 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Lewellen 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 North Platte 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 :South Platte River Roscoe 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 North Platte 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 :Elkhorn River Ewing 1N 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 :Platte River Brady North Chann 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Frenchman Creek Palisade 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 :Stinking Water Creek Palisade 2NW 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Niobrara River Sparks 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/lbf for more weather and water information. This is the second spring flood and water resource outlook for 2024. The next spring flood outlook will be issued March 14th. Thereafter, long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of the month throughout the year. $$ Roberg