####018012967#### FGUS73 KMKX 291616 ESFMKX PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1016 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024 ...Spring Flood Outlook... The risk of spring flooding is below average across southern Wisconsin. Flooding is still possible, but the underlying risk is not elevated at this time. The absense of a snowpack, the drier than average February, average to below average soil moisture, no frost in the ground are the main factors in the below average flood risk. ...Flood Outlook Factors... Despite the lack of a snowpack, precipitation for the winter months has been close to average. Precipitation since December 1 was 75- 125% of normal across most of southern Wisconsin. For the month of February, precipitation was 25-75% of normal. The absense of a snowpack and the drier than average February play a large role in the decreased flood risk. Streamflow across southern Wisconsin are close to normal, the 25- 75th percentile, averaged over the past 14 days. Soil moisture is close to average in southeast Wisconsin and below average in south-central and southwest Wisconsin. Precipitation deficits are 6 to 15 inches since May 1 across southwest and south- central Wisconsin. Parts of southwest and south-central Wisconsin are in moderate and severe drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. These long term precipitation deficits and the impact on the soils also play a large role in the decreased flood risk. All the frost depth sensors in southern Wisconsin are reporting no frost. Rivers are mainly ice free, so the ice jam risk is low. However some lakes are still ice covered so ice may make its way downstream and could cause some jam issues. Little precipitation is expected over the next week. The outlook for the second week in March indicates enhanced odds for above average temperature and above average precipitation. The outlook for March- April-May indicates enhanced odds for above average temperature and equal chances of above, near and below average precipitation. ...Probabilistic Forecast Information for River Forecast Points... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Rock River Watertown 5.5 6.0 6.5 : 5 16 <5 11 <5 6 :Crawfish River Milford 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 16 38 <5 9 <5 7 :Rock River Jefferson 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 15 37 9 26 <5 7 Fort Atkinson 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 10 19 <5 9 <5 5 Lake Koshkonong 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 24 45 13 31 12 24 Afton 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 24 44 11 17 <5 10 :Turtle Creek Clinton 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Beloit 7.5 10.5 12.5 : 9 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Martintown 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 9 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar River Albany 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Brodhead 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 20 36 <5 9 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 16.0 17.6 18.9 : <5 25 <5 13 <5 7 Portage 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 16 71 7 52 <5 24 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 37 49 17 31 7 13 Rock Springs 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 18 34 10 27 <5 8 West Baraboo 9.0 10.5 12.5 : 5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baraboo 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 19 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 5.5 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fox River Princeton 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 6 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 Berlin 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 10 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 15 32 6 8 <5 6 :Root River Franklin 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 22 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Canal Raymond 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 19 22 <5 5 <5 <5 :Root River Racine 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 6 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 16 39 <5 9 <5 <5 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 9 15 <5 8 <5 <5 Burlington 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 12 25 7 16 <5 <5 New Munster 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 60 68 12 32 9 19 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.6 :Crawfish River Milford 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.6 6.1 7.7 8.5 :Rock River Jefferson 5.3 5.5 6.0 7.5 9.3 10.9 12.0 Fort Atkinson 12.2 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.5 16.1 16.6 Lake Koshkonong 6.3 6.4 7.6 8.8 9.8 11.8 12.2 Afton 5.7 5.7 6.3 7.9 8.8 11.2 11.8 :Turtle Creek Clinton 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.5 6.2 7.9 9.7 Beloit 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.8 7.0 9.0 :Pecatonica River Darlington 3.9 4.0 4.5 5.3 7.1 9.6 11.0 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.5 9.9 10.6 12.1 :Pecatonica River Martintown 6.8 7.1 7.7 8.7 11.5 13.4 14.4 :Sugar River Albany 4.7 4.9 5.5 6.5 8.3 9.6 10.7 Brodhead 1.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.8 5.6 7.3 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 5.5 6.3 7.8 9.9 11.6 13.4 14.3 Portage 11.8 12.3 13.2 15.1 16.7 17.9 18.2 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 7.8 9.0 10.6 12.5 15.3 17.0 18.6 Rock Springs 10.6 11.5 12.8 15.3 17.7 21.1 22.9 West Baraboo 3.1 3.5 4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.2 Baraboo 9.2 10.2 11.8 13.9 15.7 18.0 20.0 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.3 5.2 :Fox River Princeton 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.2 8.1 9.0 10.0 Berlin 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.0 13.8 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.7 7.3 8.4 11.7 :Root River Franklin 3.2 4.1 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.4 8.6 :Root River Canal Raymond 4.4 4.6 5.8 7.2 8.5 10.0 10.6 :Root River Racine 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.4 6.2 7.1 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.6 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.3 10.4 11.9 12.6 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 7.6 Burlington 7.5 7.8 8.3 9.3 10.1 11.2 12.5 New Munster 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.3 12.2 13.5 15.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 :Crawfish River Milford 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Rock River Jefferson 5.4 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 Fort Atkinson 12.2 11.7 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 Lake Koshkonong 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 Afton 5.8 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.5 2.6 2.6 :Turtle Creek Clinton 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Beloit 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 :Pecatonica River Darlington 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 :Pecatonica River Martintown 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 :Sugar River Albany 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 Brodhead 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 Portage 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.1 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 Rock Springs 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 West Baraboo 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Baraboo 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 :Fox River Princeton 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 Berlin 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.5 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Root River Franklin 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Root River Canal Raymond 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Root River Racine 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Burlington 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 New Munster 7.9 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued March 14, 2024. Marquardt $$