####018018811#### FGUS73 KEAX 291655 ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-010000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River, Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. ...Below normal flood potential through May along the Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville... ...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will likely experience minor to moderate flooding... Outlook: Through May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 25 to 40 percent lower than normal. Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to 30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 55 percent. Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger, Crooked, Wakenda, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each spring. Recent Conditions: The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below normal precipitation the past 30 days. Most locations north and east of a line from Atchison, Kansas through Kansas City, Missouri to Sedalia, Missouri received less than 25 percent of normal precipitation. Liquid precipitation amounts ranged from less than a tenth of an inch across northwest Missouri to around an inch and a half across east-central Kansas. The bulk of the region received between a tenth and half inch during the past 30 days. During the past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region received above normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received between 125 and 150 percent of normal precipitation. 30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central Missouri. These values were 9 to 12 degrees above normal. For the past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values ranging 3 to 6 degrees warmer than average. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 80 percent of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, around 10 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate drought, and 7 percent severe drought. Minimal snow cover is present across the local region. In addition, much below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin. 7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below normal streamflow conditions were increasing in coverage during the past two weeks. Future Conditions: 7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter inch with above normal temperatures likely. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. The final spring flood outlook will be issued on March 14. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 34 43 26 33 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 81 90 68 71 9 9 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 18 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 28 73 16 45 8 11 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 21 62 10 23 8 15 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 18 50 10 19 7 9 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 13 36 9 18 <5 8 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 14 14 8 11 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 16 26 6 10 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 55 80 15 21 11 12 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 56 82 15 23 13 14 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 55 77 47 75 15 26 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 79 14 18 5 8 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 47 74 46 72 26 48 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 16 37 9 11 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 23 49 22 48 7 7 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 65 85 38 59 6 7 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 69 37 59 16 30 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 62 79 33 48 14 28 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 27 29 8 8 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 14 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 21 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 40 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 61 81 56 76 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 62 68 53 58 16 20 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 79 90 68 81 24 29 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 91 94 49 57 8 9 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 65 37 53 8 8 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 69 81 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 56 67 43 56 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 32 45 13 14 6 6 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 38 65 30 55 21 40 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 44 62 10 25 7 8 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 64 77 49 65 29 38 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 80 84 78 82 8 8 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 59 77 18 29 10 9 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 31 39 23 27 14 17 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 68 29 34 17 17 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 63 64 35 43 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 92 93 87 83 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 44 45 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 60 60 39 43 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 41 47 34 43 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 6.4 9.3 13.7 20.5 28.2 29.1 30.9 :Stranger Creek Easton 11.8 15.6 17.4 20.4 21.4 22.9 24.3 Tonganoxie 9.0 13.0 17.9 23.1 25.3 25.8 28.0 :Kansas River De Soto 7.4 8.1 10.7 13.1 18.9 23.6 27.0 Turner Bridge KCK 9.0 11.7 14.0 20.9 27.6 36.7 41.7 23rd Street KCK 14.1 16.0 17.6 22.9 28.8 37.6 42.8 :Missouri River St Joseph 7.9 8.3 11.3 14.3 17.6 23.0 29.3 Atchison 10.5 11.0 15.1 18.0 21.3 26.8 31.7 Leavenworth 5.1 5.5 9.3 12.7 17.4 23.6 30.4 Parkville 10.1 11.0 15.3 17.4 20.5 27.1 33.6 Kansas City 12.9 14.7 16.3 20.4 24.9 33.0 39.3 Napoleon 10.4 12.0 13.2 17.4 21.1 28.0 31.4 Waverly 13.9 15.6 16.8 21.3 24.5 31.2 31.6 Miami 11.1 13.3 15.1 20.5 24.1 29.3 30.2 Glasgow 14.9 18.2 21.2 26.2 29.9 36.6 40.2 Boonville 10.9 14.4 17.5 23.1 26.7 32.3 33.9 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.6 9.5 11.4 16.0 25.1 28.3 29.3 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 4.0 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.9 19.6 23.5 :102 River Maryville 6.8 11.3 12.0 13.9 16.5 22.4 25.7 Rosendale 3.2 10.4 13.3 15.3 17.7 21.5 23.2 :Platte River Agency 8.4 16.9 19.0 23.1 25.9 27.9 30.2 :Little Platte River Smithville 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.6 19.1 22.4 26.5 :Platte River Sharps Station 13.2 18.3 21.4 25.7 31.7 33.6 35.1 Platte City 10.1 15.4 18.2 20.8 26.0 29.6 31.2 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 27.0 28.7 32.0 35.5 38.6 40.2 Bannister Road Ka 8.3 9.8 13.8 21.5 28.7 34.9 36.9 71 Highway Kansas 7.3 9.1 13.5 19.2 24.6 30.2 32.5 63rd Street Kansa 10.6 12.2 14.7 19.2 24.7 29.3 32.2 Colorado Avenue K 10.2 11.6 14.2 18.2 22.3 26.7 29.7 Stadium Drive Kan 9.3 10.9 14.9 19.4 26.7 29.1 32.7 17th Street Kansa 13.1 15.1 18.5 22.3 28.7 30.9 33.9 12th Street Kansa 9.0 10.8 13.7 16.9 24.2 26.3 29.1 :Little Blue River Lake City 5.5 6.7 8.6 16.5 20.7 23.9 24.2 :Crooked River Richmond 8.2 14.5 18.0 21.7 24.4 26.7 27.1 :Thompson River Trenton 11.1 14.6 17.8 22.9 27.6 31.5 34.6 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.3 3.8 11.6 19.1 31.5 36.2 43.6 Gallatin 3.9 5.7 15.6 23.1 31.3 33.1 41.3 Chillicothe 6.0 9.7 20.3 27.5 38.1 39.9 41.3 Sumner 10.6 15.3 29.8 32.6 37.3 38.9 42.3 Brunswick 6.5 12.0 17.5 20.1 25.1 32.4 38.9 :Chariton River Novinger 1.3 3.6 10.1 15.1 22.4 27.3 29.7 Prairie Hill 4.0 7.6 12.1 15.7 19.6 22.2 23.9 :South Grand River Urich 11.3 14.9 21.3 24.7 28.4 28.8 30.9 :Big Creek Blairstown 16.6 22.9 23.3 24.1 26.0 27.1 27.3 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 15.0 15.5 21.7 25.9 33.9 36.7 38.3 La Cygne 9.3 10.6 20.0 27.6 32.8 33.6 34.0 Trading Post 10.6 12.0 18.9 25.5 34.6 37.6 38.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.1 Tonganoxie 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 :Kansas River De Soto 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 :Missouri River St Joseph 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 Atchison 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Parkville 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 Kansas City 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 Napoleon 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 Waverly 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 Miami 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 Glasgow 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 Boonville 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 :102 River Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 Stadium Drive Kan 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 17th Street Kansa 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 12th Street Kansa 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 :Crooked River Richmond 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 :Thompson River Trenton 8.7 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gallatin 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Chillicothe 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 Sumner 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 :Chariton River Novinger 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 :South Grand River Urich 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 La Cygne 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 Trading Post 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW ####018016415#### FGUS73 KFGF 291657 ESFFGF MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-125- 135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077- 081-091-095-097-099-281200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND 1057 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... ...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL... This outlook covers the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries. ...ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN... * This 90-day outlook covers the period from 3/4/2024 to 6/2/2024. .OUTLOOK SUMMARY... * Probabilities for exceeding Major, Moderate, Minor Flood Stage... Major Flooding... There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of major flooding across the basin. Moderate Flooding... There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of moderate flooding at Fargo/Moorhead and Oslo on the Red River. In North Dakota, there is a medium risk of moderate flooding at Abercrombie on the Wild Rice River. There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of moderate flooding elsewhere across the basin. Minor Flooding... There is high risk (greater than 65 percent chance) of minor flooding at Fargo/Moorhead on the Red River. There is a medium risk (35 to 65 percent chance) of minor flooding at Wahpeton and Grand Forks/East Grand Forks on the Red River. In Minnesota, there is a medium risk of minor flooding at Sabin on the South Branch Buffalo River, Dilworth on the Buffalo River, Hendrum on the Wild Rice River, and Hallock on the Two Rivers River. There is a low risk (less than 35 percent chance) of minor flooding elsewhere across the basin. .OUTLOOK DISCUSSION... Hydrologic and climate conditions which affect each of the several factors that significantly determine the timing and magnitude of spring snowmelt flooding within the Red River of the North are discussed below: * FALL AND WINTER PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE... While overall fall precipitation was below normal, winter precipitation has been near to above normal for much of the basin (due to rain and ice events). * SOIL MOISTURE... Soil moisture remains lower than normal across much of the basin with moderate to severe drought conditions across the north and abnormally dry conditions in the south. * RIVER FLOWS... At the end of December, base streamflows were flowing near to slightly higher than normal on the Red River mainstem and its tributaries. * FROST DEPTHS... January cold formed a deep frost layer across much of the basin. However, February warmth allowed for some thawing to begin, especially in the south. Lake/river observations indicate ice cover is thinner and less consistent than normal due to mild temperatures. * SNOWPACK CONDITIONS... The current snowpack and associated water content is much below normal. Since December 1, 2023, snowfall has been running roughly 10 to 50 percent of normal, lowest across the southern two-thirds of the basin. The majority of any lingering snowpack melted and infiltrated the soils throughout February. Additional snow fell earlier this week across central portions of the basin and the associated water content has been incorporated into this outlook. * FACTORS YET TO BE DETERMINED... - Further snowpack growth, - Rate of snowmelt/thaw, - Heavy rain on snow or frozen ground during thaw or peak flood, - Heavy rain on ice-covered rivers causing short-term ice jams. * SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECAST... Generally above normal temperatures will continue throughout the first week of March. Dry conditions will persist through the end of the week before the potential for rain and/or snow returns late in the weekend and early next week. * LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK... Climate outlooks indicate above normal temperatures into spring. This will continue to melt any remaining snowpack and introduce the possibility of rain instead of snow through early spring. .NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... The next 2024 spring flood outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 14, 2024. .FLOOD OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TABLES... The following message has two sections: the first gives the current and normal/historical chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate, and major flood category. The second gives the current chances of river locations rising above river stages listed. ...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category... Valid from March 4, 2024 to June 2, 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal, probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical, or normal, conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- Red River of the North..... WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 60 62 22 31 <5 18 HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 13 27 <5 14 <5 <5 FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 86 85 36 40 13 26 HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 23 38 10 22 <5 12 GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 41 57 10 31 <5 11 OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 49 63 37 56 <5 18 DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 24 48 11 33 <5 12 PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 28 52 14 43 <5 22 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- Minnesota Tributaries..... Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow through its diversion SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 47 61 9 17 <5 <5 HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 15 40 7 25 <5 <5 DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 57 71 9 21 <5 <5 TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 17 <5 8 <5 <5 HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 41 54 10 22 <5 7 SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : 5 28 <5 11 <5 6 CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 7 25 <5 12 <5 8 HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 12 <5 9 <5 7 CROOKSTON 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 17 50 <5 27 <5 9 ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 17 26 8 17 <5 <5 HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 49 62 15 41 <5 10 ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 21 <5 13 <5 8 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- --- North Dakota Tributaries..... ABERCROMBIE 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 53 42 42 34 7 20 VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 6 LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 11 <5 10 <5 7 KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : 5 20 <5 11 <5 10 WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : <5 12 <5 11 <5 10 HARWOOD 84.0 86.0 91.0 : 12 26 9 21 6 10 ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 17 28 <5 11 <5 <5 MAPLETON 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 30 38 11 18 <5 5 HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 5 19 <5 10 <5 <5 MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : <5 25 <5 7 <5 <5 WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 27 <5 26 <5 20 LEGEND: CS = Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions) HS = Historical Simulation ( " " normal conditions) FT = Feet (above gage zero datum) ...Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage... Valid from March 04, 2024 to June 02, 2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Red River of the North..... WAHPETON 7.8 8.6 10.3 11.4 12.8 14.1 14.8 HICKSON 13.9 15.4 19.2 23.0 26.7 31.3 32.3 FARGO 16.4 17.0 19.6 21.8 26.3 30.5 33.6 HALSTAD 10.6 11.0 14.5 20.4 24.9 31.7 34.6 GRAND FORKS 18.6 18.8 20.5 25.7 32.0 40.4 42.9 OSLO 13.5 14.1 18.1 25.7 32.2 34.9 35.8 DRAYTON 16.0 16.3 19.5 25.2 31.8 38.9 40.3 PEMBINA 19.4 20.5 25.4 33.9 40.6 45.4 48.2 Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ South Fork Buffalo River..... SABIN 8.8 9.3 11.1 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.3 Buffalo River..... HAWLEY 4.5 4.8 5.3 6.5 7.6 8.3 9.1 DILWORTH 7.6 8.3 10.5 15.2 17.9 19.8 20.9 Wild Rice River..... TWIN VALLEY 3.3 3.6 4.2 5.4 6.9 8.6 9.6 HENDRUM 7.5 8.4 12.3 18.6 22.4 27.9 28.8 Marsh River..... SHELLY 5.1 5.3 6.1 8.2 9.4 12.2 14.5 Sand Hill River..... CLIMAX 6.0 6.2 7.7 10.1 11.8 19.0 21.1 Red Lake River..... HIGH LANDING 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.7 7.4 8.8 CROOKSTON 6.2 6.4 7.7 11.1 13.7 18.0 19.7 Snake River..... ABOVE WARREN 62.0 62.1 62.7 63.3 64.2 65.9 66.8 ALVARADO 97.8 98.0 99.7 101.1 105.0 107.5 108.7 Two Rivers River..... HALLOCK 797.1 797.5 799.4 801.7 804.2 807.4 808.0 Roseau River..... considering the flow through the Roseau diversion ROSEAU 7.4 7.7 8.3 9.5 11.6 13.5 15.2 North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Wild Rice River..... ABERCROMBIE 12.3 13.6 16.4 20.6 24.1 27.4 29.2 Sheyenne River..... VALLEY CITY 4.9 5.1 5.4 6.8 9.0 11.0 11.8 LISBON 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.7 8.5 10.6 11.7 KINDRED 5.6 5.6 6.7 8.4 11.0 12.5 16.7 WEST FARGO DVRSN 8.7 8.7 9.1 10.9 12.9 13.0 16.6 HARWOOD 73.0 73.3 74.1 77.3 79.9 84.7 91.2 Maple River..... ENDERLIN 4.1 4.5 5.2 7.1 8.7 10.3 11.5 MAPLETON 11.2 11.4 12.2 15.7 18.8 21.4 22.2 Goose River..... HILLSBORO 2.8 2.9 3.4 4.3 5.9 7.7 10.2 Forest River..... MINTO 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 5.3 5.8 Pembina River..... WALHALLA 2.7 2.8 3.2 4.0 5.0 6.5 7.8 NECHE 4.0 4.2 5.0 6.5 9.0 13.0 14.9 .THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS... This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river levels and soil conditions using 69 years (1949-2018) of past precipitation and temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then be ranked from lowest to highest and assigned an exceedance probability. For example, for a series of 50 years, the lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability of exceedance (POE). A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4 The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during the valid period of the outlook. By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is contributing to the area's Decision Support Services that help with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook is a part of NOAA's National Weather Service's AHPS (Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services). .ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES... The AHPS Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued each month typically between the first and second Friday after mid-month. However, Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks are issued several times leading up to the spring melt period, usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions. This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the period. These graphs, along with explanations for interpreting them, are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page: www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" tab above the map. Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake basins are also available on our website, as well as 7-day forecasts when river levels at forecast points are in or near flood. Additional Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as conditions warrant. Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils and Stump Lakes Probability of Exceedance levels and low-water non-exceedance levels. If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720. You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks. $$ www.weather.gov/fgf NNNN ####018018816#### FGUS73 KEAX 291658 CCA ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-010000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River, Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. ...Below normal flood potential through May along the Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville... ...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will likely experience minor to moderate flooding... Outlook: Through May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 25 to 40 percent lower than normal. Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to 30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas through Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding through May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 55 percent. Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger, Crooked, Wakenda, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding each spring. Recent Conditions: The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below normal precipitation the past 30 days. Most locations north and east of a line from Atchison, Kansas through Kansas City, Missouri to Sedalia, Missouri received less than 25 percent of normal precipitation. Liquid precipitation amounts ranged from less than a tenth of an inch across northwest Missouri to around an inch and a half across east-central Kansas. The bulk of the region received between a tenth and half inch during the past 30 days. During the past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region received above normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received between 125 and 150 percent of normal precipitation. 30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central Missouri. These values were 9 to 12 degrees above normal. For the past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values ranging 3 to 6 degrees warmer than average. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 80 percent of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, around 10 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 65 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate drought, and 7 percent severe drought. Minimal snow cover is present across the local region. In addition, much below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin. 7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below normal streamflow conditions were increasing in coverage during the past two weeks. Future Conditions: 7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter inch with above normal temperatures likely. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA. The final spring flood outlook will be issued on March 14. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 34 43 26 33 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 81 90 68 71 9 9 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 18 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 28 73 16 45 8 11 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 21 62 10 23 8 15 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 18 50 10 19 7 9 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 13 36 9 18 <5 8 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 14 14 8 11 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 16 26 6 10 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 55 80 15 21 11 12 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 56 82 15 23 13 14 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 55 77 47 75 15 26 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 79 14 18 5 8 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 47 74 46 72 26 48 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 16 37 9 11 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 23 49 22 48 7 7 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 65 85 38 59 6 7 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 69 37 59 16 30 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 62 79 33 48 14 28 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 27 29 8 8 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 14 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 21 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 40 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 61 81 56 76 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 62 68 53 58 16 20 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 79 90 68 81 24 29 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 91 94 49 57 8 9 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 65 37 53 8 8 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 69 81 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 56 67 43 56 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 32 45 13 14 6 6 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 38 65 30 55 21 40 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 44 62 10 25 7 8 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 64 77 49 65 29 38 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 80 84 78 82 8 8 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 59 77 18 29 10 9 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 31 39 23 27 14 17 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 68 29 34 17 17 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 63 64 35 43 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 92 93 87 83 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 44 45 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 60 60 39 43 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 41 47 34 43 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 6.4 9.3 13.7 20.5 28.2 29.1 30.9 :Stranger Creek Easton 11.8 15.6 17.4 20.4 21.4 22.9 24.3 Tonganoxie 9.0 13.0 17.9 23.1 25.3 25.8 28.0 :Kansas River De Soto 7.4 8.1 10.7 13.1 18.9 23.6 27.0 Turner Bridge KCK 9.0 11.7 14.0 20.9 27.6 36.7 41.7 23rd Street KCK 14.1 16.0 17.6 22.9 28.8 37.6 42.8 :Missouri River St Joseph 7.9 8.3 11.3 14.3 17.6 23.0 29.3 Atchison 10.5 11.0 15.1 18.0 21.3 26.8 31.7 Leavenworth 5.1 5.5 9.3 12.7 17.4 23.6 30.4 Parkville 10.1 11.0 15.3 17.4 20.5 27.1 33.6 Kansas City 12.9 14.7 16.3 20.4 24.9 33.0 39.3 Napoleon 10.4 12.0 13.2 17.4 21.1 28.0 31.4 Waverly 13.9 15.6 16.8 21.3 24.5 31.2 31.6 Miami 11.1 13.3 15.1 20.5 24.1 29.3 30.2 Glasgow 14.9 18.2 21.2 26.2 29.9 36.6 40.2 Boonville 10.9 14.4 17.5 23.1 26.7 32.3 33.9 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.6 9.5 11.4 16.0 25.1 28.3 29.3 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 4.0 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.9 19.6 23.5 :102 River Maryville 6.8 11.3 12.0 13.9 16.5 22.4 25.7 Rosendale 3.2 10.4 13.3 15.3 17.7 21.5 23.2 :Platte River Agency 8.4 16.9 19.0 23.1 25.9 27.9 30.2 :Little Platte River Smithville 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.6 19.1 22.4 26.5 :Platte River Sharps Station 13.2 18.3 21.4 25.7 31.7 33.6 35.1 Platte City 10.1 15.4 18.2 20.8 26.0 29.6 31.2 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 27.0 28.7 32.0 35.5 38.6 40.2 Bannister Road Ka 8.3 9.8 13.8 21.5 28.7 34.9 36.9 71 Highway Kansas 7.3 9.1 13.5 19.2 24.6 30.2 32.5 63rd Street Kansa 10.6 12.2 14.7 19.2 24.7 29.3 32.2 Colorado Avenue K 10.2 11.6 14.2 18.2 22.3 26.7 29.7 Stadium Drive Kan 9.3 10.9 14.9 19.4 26.7 29.1 32.7 17th Street Kansa 13.1 15.1 18.5 22.3 28.7 30.9 33.9 12th Street Kansa 9.0 10.8 13.7 16.9 24.2 26.3 29.1 :Little Blue River Lake City 5.5 6.7 8.6 16.5 20.7 23.9 24.2 :Crooked River Richmond 8.2 14.5 18.0 21.7 24.4 26.7 27.1 :Thompson River Trenton 11.1 14.6 17.8 22.9 27.6 31.5 34.6 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.3 3.8 11.6 19.1 31.5 36.2 43.6 Gallatin 3.9 5.7 15.6 23.1 31.3 33.1 41.3 Chillicothe 6.0 9.7 20.3 27.5 38.1 39.9 41.3 Sumner 10.6 15.3 29.8 32.6 37.3 38.9 42.3 Brunswick 6.5 12.0 17.5 20.1 25.1 32.4 38.9 :Chariton River Novinger 1.3 3.6 10.1 15.1 22.4 27.3 29.7 Prairie Hill 4.0 7.6 12.1 15.7 19.6 22.2 23.9 :South Grand River Urich 11.3 14.9 21.3 24.7 28.4 28.8 30.9 :Big Creek Blairstown 16.6 22.9 23.3 24.1 26.0 27.1 27.3 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 15.0 15.5 21.7 25.9 33.9 36.7 38.3 La Cygne 9.3 10.6 20.0 27.6 32.8 33.6 34.0 Trading Post 10.6 12.0 18.9 25.5 34.6 37.6 38.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.1 Tonganoxie 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 :Kansas River De Soto 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 :Missouri River St Joseph 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 Atchison 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Parkville 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 Kansas City 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 Napoleon 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 Waverly 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 Miami 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 Glasgow 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 Boonville 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 :102 River Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 Stadium Drive Kan 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 17th Street Kansa 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 12th Street Kansa 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 :Crooked River Richmond 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 :Thompson River Trenton 8.7 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gallatin 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Chillicothe 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 Sumner 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 :Chariton River Novinger 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 :South Grand River Urich 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 La Cygne 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 Trading Post 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW ####018009374#### FGUS73 KABR 291659 ESFABR MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057- 059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-251700- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1059 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood Outlook... This spring flood outlook is for the rivers and streams in northeast South Dakota, portions of central South Dakota, and portions of west central Minnesota. A current lack of snow cover, areas of thawed ground, and decreasing river ice currently point toward a below normal flood risk over the area over the next 90 days. With this said, additional heavy precipitation events or cold outbreaks could change the flood risk going forward. Changes to the flood risk factors will continue to be monitored and updates provided in future outlooks. The outlook for the next two weeks is for increased chances for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The 90 day outlook for March through May indicates increased chances for above normal temperatures, and equal chances for below, near or above normal precipitation. ...Current snow conditions... Current snow depth ranges from a trace to less than 1 inch across parts of Corson, Campbell and Walworth counties, as well as a small area north of Webster to the North Dakota border. The remainder of the area is currently snow free. The liquid water equivalent with any remaining snow pack is generally less than one tenth of an inch. ...Current soil conditions... Soil moisture is near to above normal across the entire area. Frost depths are generally around or below one foot. The areas currently in drought at this time are all of Codington, Deuel, Hamlin, Brown, McPherson, Campbell and Corson counties, and portions of Roberts, Marshall, Day, Edmunds, Walworth, Dewey, Grant, and Clark counties in South Dakota and Big Stone and Traverse counties in Minnesota. ...Current river conditions... Most of the rivers are at least partially iced over, but reports indicate that there are areas of open water. River levels and flows are generally running near to below normal across the region. The threat for break-up ice jams appears low at this time. ...Probabalistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Elm River Westport 14.0 16.0 19.0 : <5 28 <5 22 <5 9 :James River Columbia 13.0 16.0 18.0 : 15 55 6 41 5 29 Stratford 14.0 17.0 18.5 : 23 58 6 43 5 29 Ashton 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 54 6 45 6 43 Redfield 20.0 22.0 25.0 : 9 42 6 41 6 39 :Snake Creek Ashton 11.5 13.0 16.0 : 8 49 6 39 5 34 :Turtle Creek Redfield 7.0 10.0 15.0 : 26 54 16 42 8 30 :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Watertown Conifer 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 35 <5 29 <5 <5 Watertown Broadwy 10.5 11.0 13.5 : <5 34 <5 33 <5 <5 Castlewood 9.0 11.0 16.0 : 11 37 <5 28 <5 <5 :Grand River Little Eagle 15.0 17.0 21.0 : <5 27 <5 17 <5 6 :Moreau River White Horse 21.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 22 <5 17 <5 11 :Bad River Fort Pierre 21.0 25.0 27.0 : 10 12 5 5 <5 <5 :Little Minnesota Peever 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 15 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River Big Stone Lake 971.5 973.0 975.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Elm River Westport 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 8.7 11.5 12.5 :James River Columbia 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.1 11.9 15.0 17.8 Stratford 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.9 13.0 15.8 18.5 Ashton 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.3 11.3 21.1 Redfield 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 10.6 19.3 26.9 :Snake Creek Ashton 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 6.4 10.9 17.2 :Turtle Creek Redfield 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.1 7.3 14.2 16.5 :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 4.1 4.1 4.5 5.4 6.7 8.2 9.1 Watertown Conifer 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.2 6.8 8.4 Watertown Broadwy 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.8 6.8 8.7 10.3 Castlewood 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.8 7.0 9.1 10.2 :Grand River Little Eagle 2.9 2.9 3.7 5.5 8.1 9.2 10.0 :Moreau River White Horse 2.5 3.5 5.5 6.7 10.3 12.7 14.1 :Bad River Fort Pierre 3.4 4.5 6.4 9.6 13.4 20.5 24.2 :Little Minnesota Peever 11.1 11.8 12.8 14.3 15.9 17.8 20.0 :Minnesota River Big Stone Lake 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 969.2 970.3 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Elm River Westport 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :James River Columbia 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 Stratford 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Ashton 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 Redfield 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 :Snake Creek Ashton 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Turtle Creek Redfield 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Watertown Conifer 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Watertown Broadwy 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 Castlewood 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 :Grand River Little Eagle 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 :Moreau River White Horse 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Bad River Fort Pierre 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 :Little Minnesota Peever 10.6 10.5 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 :Minnesota River Big Stone Lake 967.6 967.6 967.6 967.6 967.6 967.6 967.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/abr for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on March 14th. $$ Parkin