####018010911#### FGUS73 KMPX 291758 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-282359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1155 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa (WI) River Basins... ...There is a Below Normal Probability of Spring Flooding Throughout the Area... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical/normal (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. When the value of CS is greater than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 13 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Springfield 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 20 38 6 18 <5 <5 New Ulm 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 15 31 6 18 <5 9 :Minnesota River Montevideo 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 19 30 <5 19 <5 8 Granite Falls 885.0 889.0 892.0 : 6 21 <5 7 <5 <5 Morton 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 19 33 7 22 <5 7 New Ulm 800.0 804.0 806.0 : 6 18 <5 8 <5 6 Mankato 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5 Henderson 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 18 <5 8 <5 <5 Jordan 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 10 27 <5 16 <5 <5 Savage 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 32 62 <5 13 <5 10 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 7.0 8.0 10.0 : 5 17 <5 6 <5 <5 :Sauk River St Cloud 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 17 27 <5 12 <5 8 Delano 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 10 20 6 16 <5 11 :Crow River Rockford 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 10 22 5 13 <5 8 :Mississippi River St Cloud 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 32 <5 15 <5 <5 Hwy 169 Champlin 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 7 21 5 8 <5 <5 :Rum River Milaca 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francis 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 9 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River Mora 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 13 26 <5 9 <5 <5 :Mississippi River Fridley 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6 St Paul 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 6 23 5 19 <5 12 Hastings L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 14 40 5 19 <5 13 Red Wing L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 7 25 <5 17 <5 8 Red Wing 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 5 20 <5 14 <5 10 :Cannon River Northfield 897.0 899.0 900.0 : <5 17 <5 5 <5 <5 :St Croix River Stillwater 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 8 24 5 19 <5 12 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 8 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 15 <5 7 <5 <5 Durand 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 12 42 <5 12 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL) FT = FEET In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.5 33.2 33.6 34.2 35.3 37.5 38.1 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.8 6.9 8.9 :Cottonwood River Springfield 14.8 15.3 16.1 18.2 21.3 25.7 28.8 New Ulm 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.8 9.6 12.3 14.4 :Minnesota River Montevideo 6.8 7.1 9.9 11.3 13.4 14.9 15.6 Granite Falls 881.5 881.6 882.5 883.0 883.6 884.5 885.1 Morton 12.5 13.0 16.1 18.5 20.4 22.2 23.7 New Ulm 788.2 788.7 791.2 793.1 795.0 797.7 800.5 Mankato 6.4 6.9 8.0 11.1 14.8 17.3 19.5 Henderson 718.6 719.9 721.5 724.6 727.6 729.9 731.6 Jordan 9.8 11.2 13.1 17.3 22.4 24.8 26.4 Savage 688.9 691.3 693.7 699.4 703.2 706.9 708.6 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 2.8 3.1 4.1 4.9 6.0 6.8 7.1 :Sauk River St Cloud 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.6 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 4.5 5.3 6.3 8.0 10.4 12.2 14.5 Delano 8.9 9.8 11.0 12.9 14.9 16.5 18.2 :Crow River Rockford 4.3 4.6 5.3 6.8 8.3 10.1 12.0 :Mississippi River St Cloud 5.8 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.8 9.6 Hwy 169 Champlin 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 14.0 :Rum River Milaca 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 St Francis 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.7 :Snake River Mora 3.6 5.0 5.6 7.2 9.2 11.3 12.7 :Mississippi River Fridley 6.0 6.6 7.6 8.8 10.9 12.7 15.9 St Paul 3.2 4.0 4.9 7.3 10.0 12.4 15.6 Hastings L/D#2 6.0 6.7 7.7 10.4 13.2 15.3 17.1 Red Wing L/D#3 670.3 671.2 673.2 675.8 677.9 679.8 681.4 Red Wing 4.4 5.0 6.1 8.0 10.1 12.2 14.1 :Cannon River Northfield 891.5 891.6 892.7 893.5 894.6 896.1 896.8 :St Croix River Stillwater 76.3 77.0 78.8 81.2 83.9 86.2 88.1 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.7 8.1 9.4 12.5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 761.5 762.9 763.5 764.7 766.5 769.6 770.6 Durand 5.8 7.1 7.8 9.3 10.7 13.6 14.0 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.7 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.0 31.9 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 :Cottonwood River Springfield 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 New Ulm 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 :Minnesota River Montevideo 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.9 Granite Falls 880.9 880.7 880.5 880.4 880.1 880.0 879.8 Morton 11.1 10.7 10.0 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.3 New Ulm 787.5 787.2 786.7 786.5 786.0 785.5 785.4 Mankato 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 Henderson 715.8 715.3 714.4 713.9 713.1 712.7 712.5 Jordan 7.3 6.7 5.9 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.4 Savage 688.1 687.9 687.7 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 :Sauk River St Cloud 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.5 Delano 8.4 8.0 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.8 5.5 :Crow River Rockford 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 :Mississippi River St Cloud 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 Hwy 169 Champlin 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 :Rum River Milaca 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 St Francis 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 :Snake River Mora 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 :Mississippi River Fridley 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 St Paul 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Hastings L/D#2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 Red Wing L/D#3 669.3 669.1 668.6 668.4 668.2 667.8 667.7 Red Wing 3.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 :Cannon River Northfield 890.6 890.4 890.2 890.1 890.0 889.9 889.8 :St Croix River Stillwater 75.5 75.5 75.4 75.4 75.3 75.2 75.2 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 759.4 759.3 759.1 758.9 758.8 758.7 758.7 Durand 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 For the winter of 2023-24, we have seen a record low amount of snowfall across the entire upper Midwest. This has resulted in a below normal probability of spring flooding, due to little if any snow water equivalent to drive the snowmelt flood season. Soil moisture remains a little below normal from last year's dry summer, though the rare December rainfall did help a bit. There is ample storage available in the deeper soils, as well as in lakes, ponds, and wetlands as we head into spring. Flooding will still be possible if we receive well above normal rainfall or late season snow, but the starting point is lower than normal. Drought conditions continue across the region, and could become more severe without significant rainfall this spring. These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, along with current conditions of the river levels, soil moisture, and snow cover, combined with 30 to 90 day long range outlooks. This information is available online in graphical format, at: https://www.weather.gov/twincities and at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?who=mpx Beginning on March 27th, National Weather Service water recources information will have a new home, the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS). Starting that day, check us out at https://water.noaa.gov ! These outlooks are issues bi-weekly through mid March $$ ####018011947#### FGUS75 KRIW 291759 ESFRIW WYC003-013-017-019-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-010000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Riverton WY 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook... ...Below Average Flood Potential This Spring For Western And Central Wyoming But Confidence Remains Low... This spring flood and water resource outlook is for the Riverton Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers western and central Wyoming. .Flood Outlook Summary... There is currently low confidence in the flood potential outlook for this spring. There are still two months of snow accumulation remaining, and additional snow and rain will greatly influence river flows. The speed of the spring warm-up also greatly influences how much water makes it into rivers, with a slower and more modest warm- up allowing more water to be absorbed by the ground after frost melts. In short, many important variables are still unknown in late February. All that being said, high elevation snowpack is currently below to well below average in our HSA east of the Continental Divide. Low elevation snowpack is also below average for most basins. Statistical analysis and probabilistic forecasts in the tables below indicate near normal to below normal chances for flooding. This lines up well with local experience given current below normal snowpack conditions. .Temperatures and Precipitation... Temperatures over the past three months have been above to much above normal for most of central and western Wyoming. A lack of deep lower-elevation snowpack and absence of cold air advection bringing in arctic air masses has allowed temperatures to remain mild. The Wind River Basin is the one exception, where temperatures have been near normal over the past three months. Precipitation over the past three months has varied across the region. The Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin have seen near to slightly above normal precipitation. Most mountain ranges, the Upper Yellowstone Basin, and the Powder River Basin have had below to much below normal precipitation. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... High-elevation SWE ranges from 55 to 170 percent of normal. The lowest values are in the Upper Yellowstone Basin, North Platte Basin, and eastern Powder River Basin, with values between 55 to 80 percent of normal. The western Bighorn Basin sits between 120 to 170 percent of normal and the Wind River Basin sits near 90 percent of normal. Low-elevation snowpack is below normal for most basins. The snowiest basin is the Wind River Basin, where far southwest portions of the basin have snow depth in the 4 to 8 inch range, with 1 to 2 inches of SWE. Most of the Wind River Basin, and other central Wyoming basins have less than 1 inch of SWE and a trace to a few inches of snow depth. Its worth noting that for most locations across central Wyoming, there are around two more months of snow accumulation, with peak mountain snow depths not occurring until mid-April to mid-May. Late winter into spring is normally one of the wetter times of the year, so the snow cover and SWE values listed above could quickly become non-representative. .Soil Conditions and Frost Depths... Soil moisture for most of central Wyoming is in the 80 to 95 percent range. Exceptions to this are in the Upper Yellowstone Basin and around the North Platte River near Casper, where soil moisture is lower, and ranges from 40 to 60 percent. In the last month, frost depths have been about 2 feet for central Wyoming. .Lake and River Conditions... A majority of the higher elevation lakes and streams across the region are ice covered while lower elevation rivers have some open water areas. A majority of river gauges are ice affected, but those that are operating indicate normal to slightly above normal flows for this time of year. Its worth noting that the spring melt has not begun yet, so most of the observed river flows are not representative of spring conditions at this time. .Weather Outlooks... The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for March indicates a slightly higher than average chance of above normal precipitation, along with a slightly higher than average chance of above normal temperatures. The seasonal precipitation outlook covering meteorological spring trends toward equal chances of above or below normal precipitation, which is another way of saying that climatological normals are the best forecast. The seasonal temperature outlook covering meteorological spring trends toward a slightly higher than average chance of above normal temperatures. .Numerical River Outlooks... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate, and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 09/30/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Wind River Dubois 5.0 5.5 6.0 : 26 22 9 12 6 6 Red Creek 9.5 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Crowheart 10.0 10.5 11.0 : 5 17 <5 7 <5 <5 Kinnear 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 Riverton 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 24 25 <5 8 <5 <5 :Little Wind River Riverton 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 22 16 6 <5 <5 <5 :Bighorn River Basin 10.5 11.0 13.0 : <5 9 <5 8 <5 <5 Greybull 92.0 93.5 95.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 <5 :North Fork Shoshone River Wapiti 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 8 16 5 10 <5 <5 :South Fork Shoshone River Buffalo Bill Rese 9.5 10.5 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Shoshone River Lovell 11.0 11.5 12.0 : <5 20 <5 13 <5 12 :Yellowstone River Fishing Bridge 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lamar River Tower Junction 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Powder River Sussex 11.0 12.0 13.0 : 6 13 5 11 <5 10 :North Platte River Casper 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 09/30/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Wind River Dubois 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.4 6.1 Red Creek 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.0 Crowheart 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.0 Kinnear 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.3 8.5 Riverton 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.5 10.1 :Little Wind River Riverton 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.3 :Bighorn River Basin 5.1 5.2 5.6 7.5 8.9 9.5 9.8 Greybull 84.4 84.6 85.6 87.9 89.6 91.2 91.4 :North Fork Shoshone River Wapiti 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.8 7.5 9.1 :South Fork Shoshone River Buffalo Bill Rese 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.9 :Shoshone River Lovell 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.0 :Yellowstone River Fishing Bridge 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.8 7.0 :Lamar River Tower Junction 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.7 7.3 8.2 8.7 :Powder River Sussex 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.8 6.8 8.4 11.6 :North Platte River Casper 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.5 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 09/30/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Wind River Dubois 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Red Creek 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Crowheart 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 Kinnear 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Riverton 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 :Little Wind River Riverton 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 :Bighorn River Basin 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 Greybull 82.3 82.3 82.2 81.8 81.2 80.9 80.8 :North Fork Shoshone River Wapiti 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 :South Fork Shoshone River Buffalo Bill Rese 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Shoshone River Lovell 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Yellowstone River Fishing Bridge 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 :Lamar River Tower Junction 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 :Powder River Sussex 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 :North Platte River Casper 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of then National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/riw for more weather and water information. This is the second scheduled spring flood and water resources outlook for 2024. The next spring flood and water resource outlook will be issued on March 14, 2024. $$ Hensley