####018005720#### FGUS71 KALY 291910 ESFALY CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095- 111-113-115-VTC003-025-071915- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 210 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ...Flood threat is near to below normal for the next two weeks... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Eastern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Above normal temperatures and near term precipitation forecasts also lend to the possibility of river rises for the first portion of the outlook period. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered below normal due to the lack of snowpack. As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the month of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent below to much below normal for this time of year. Due to lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding. This is the fifth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from February 29th through March 14th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... Snow depth and snow water equivalent are both well below normal across the ALY CWA. Snowpack and snow depth are well below normal across the ALY CWA. Snow depth reports across the higher terrain of the Southern Adirondacks range from 9” to 12” with an estimated liquid water equivalent of 2-4” with isolated pockets of 4-5” of SWE. Foothills of the Adirondacks are carrying a snow pack of about 4” to 7” and 2-4” of SWE. Far eastern Bennington County, VT/Southern Greens are carrying 8” to 10” of snow pack with an estimated SWE of 3-4”. No other snow pack of hydrologic significance across the ALY CWA. ...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York are generally above normal to much above normal. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily at or above normal with a few monitoring locations below normal. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook area. New York State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths. ...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS... Warmer than normal temperatures have not supported significant river ice growth. USGS Mohawk River ice jam cameras show open water. Northeast River Forecast Center calculations suggest the area is widely void of river ice, with a few spots in the southern Adirondacks possibly up to 6 inches thick, which is certainly below normal for this time of year. No threat for ice jams or ice jam flooding is currently forecast in the two week outlook period. ...WATER SUPPLY... New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water supply reservoir levels are above normal for this time of year. Wet conditions over the past month have kept system storage well above normal. Total storage is currently at 93.9 percent of capacity, or 3.4 percent above normal capacity for this time of year. Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels are a mixture of above and below normal for this time of year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 14 feet above normal for this time of year. Elsewhere in the District, reservoir levels are +/- 1.5 to 2.5 feet of normal. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The 6 to 10 day (for March 5 to 9) and 8 to 14 day (for March 7 to 13) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks both call for above normal precipitation. Temperature trends lean strongly towards being above normal in the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlook. ...SUMMARY... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Eastern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Above normal temperatures and near term precipitation forecasts also lend to the possibility of river rises for the first portion of the outlook period. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered below normal due to the lack of snowpack. As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the month of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent below to much below normal for this time of year. Due to lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany $$ dm