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FGUS71 KBGM 292046

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NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-

109-123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-072100-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

346 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024



...OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...



This is the fifth edition of the series of regularly scheduled 

Hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter to Spring transition 

season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of 

river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York

and Northeast Pennsylvania through March 14, 2024. Remember that 

heavy rainfall is the most important determining factor toward the

development and severity of flooding in our area.



...SUMMARY...



The river and lake flood potential for the NWS Binghamton 

hydrologic service area is below normal.



...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 29...



Recent Precipitation: Below normal. Weekly departures were

showing between 25 and 70% of normal for most of the region. 



Snow Cover: Below normal. Much of the region is without a snow 

cover except for fresh, powdery lake effect snow accumulations of

6 to 18 inches over eastern parts of the Oswego drainage basin.



Snow Water Equivalent: There is one inch or less stored liquid in

areas covered by the heavy lake effect snow and nothing elsewhere.



Streamflow + Lake levels: Normal seasonal flows in most areas. 



Groundwater: Above normal storage.



River Ice: Below normal. No significant ice cover exists on area 

rivers.



Soil States: Wetter than normal and unfrozen.



METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC FORECAST OUTLOOK...



FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS:

The official 6 to 14 day outlook suggests warmer than normal

temperatures and above normal precipitation. Medium range weather

forecast models suggest only a slight chance for significant

rainfall during the next two weeks, mainly associated with a 

potentially strong low pressure system affecting the area toward 

the end of week one.



LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:

The ensemble of river forecast system guidance suggests only weak

signals favoring any river flooding developing during the next 14

days. When comparing current hydrologic forecast modeling against

historical flows, the current flood risk is considerably below 

the seasonal probability.



...IN CONCLUSION...



Taking all of the included variables into consideration, the

overall river flood potential is below normal for the major 

basins encompassing Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania. 



If conditions change over the next two weeks, Flood Watches and 

Warnings will be issued as necessary. The next Outlook is 

scheduled for March 14, 2024.



$$



JAB