####018009292#### FGUS73 KJKL 292101 ESFJKL PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 401 PM EST THU FEB 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook covers eastern Kentucky. The flood risk is near to below normal for this time of year. This means that minor flooding is expected, with some instances of moderate flooding possible. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cumberland River Barbourville 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 37 38 10 17 <5 <5 Pineville 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 44 38 23 20 <5 8 Williamsburg 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 57 56 30 24 14 15 Baxter 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 30 33 20 21 13 14 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 50 51 9 14 <5 <5 Ravenna 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 67 66 42 46 11 26 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Prestonsburg 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 18 19 13 12 8 <5 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 22 17 8 <5 <5 <5 Jackson 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 25 31 20 25 5 6 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Red River Clay City 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 31 29 23 20 13 6 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 51 47 30 24 9 11 Oneida 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 13 18 <5 6 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cumberland River Barbourville 10.0 11.5 19.2 25.0 28.9 33.0 37.1 Pineville 981.7 983.9 991.0 999.8 1009.3 1015.2 1017.7 Williamsburg 10.9 12.9 17.7 22.3 29.0 33.2 36.4 Baxter 4.3 6.5 10.4 13.6 16.6 21.0 23.1 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 15.4 16.2 18.0 20.0 22.4 23.6 25.1 Ravenna 16.9 17.8 19.6 23.8 27.4 31.4 34.7 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 10.6 12.1 15.0 22.7 32.9 38.3 39.4 Prestonsburg 7.1 10.5 13.7 21.2 29.3 36.1 38.1 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 8.9 11.2 15.4 23.2 30.5 40.1 44.1 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 5.8 6.3 9.7 13.2 18.8 25.1 29.6 Jackson 7.3 8.9 14.5 19.3 28.8 35.8 40.0 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 4.8 5.5 7.5 9.1 10.6 12.2 12.6 :Red River Clay City 8.2 9.2 10.7 12.9 18.4 24.2 25.2 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 8.8 9.1 9.9 12.3 14.6 15.8 17.6 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 12.1 12.7 19.7 27.3 33.3 37.6 40.5 Oneida 13.1 14.6 17.6 22.2 24.8 30.2 33.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cumberland River Barbourville 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Pineville 977.4 977.2 976.9 976.8 976.7 976.7 976.7 Williamsburg 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 Baxter 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 Ravenna 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 Prestonsburg 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Jackson 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 :Red River Clay City 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 Oneida 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Precipitation over the past 2 weeks has generally averaged around an inch or slightly less in the southern portion of the area, with 1 to 2 inches in the northern section of the area. Overall, this amount of rainfall is up to an inch below normal for the south, and near normal for the north. Current soil moisture values are running slightly below normal for late February, with streamflows and reservoirs currently running near to slightly above normal. Precipitation over the next week looks to range between one and one and a half inches, somewhat above normal for the first week in March. The 6 to 10 day outlook, which runs from March 6th through March 10th, calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook, which runs from March 8th through March 14th, calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. The outlook for the March calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Normal temperatures for March are around 50 and normal precipitation is between 4.5 and 5 inches. The seasonal outlook, which covers March through May, indicates good chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Additional supportive data and explanations are available for precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl- wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html. Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water information. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued March 14th. $$ GEOGERIAN/RAY