####018004265#### FGUS73 KIWX 292148 ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 448 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 ... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan. In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 9.6 feet. The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of 5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 5.3 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid February 29 2024 - May 31 2024 ... Kankakee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Kankakee River Davis IN 10 6.7 7.0 7.6 8.1 9.0 9.6 10.3 Yellow River Plymouth IN 13 6.9 8.7 9.6 10.9 12.6 13.8 14.2 Knox IN 10 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.4 8.0 8.6 9.0 Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Michigan Three Rivers MI 7 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.3 7.0 8.0 8.8 Mottville MI 8 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.5 8.3 Elkhart IN 24 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.5 25.5 South Bend IN 5.5 1.9 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.3 7.0 7.5 Niles MI 11 7.0 7.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 12.2 12.7 Elkhart River Goshen IN 7 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.8 6.0 7.4 8.2 Cosperville IN 6 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Given the record breaking mild February conditions, there was no snow cover or ice on rivers at the end of February. There have been 7 to 9 inches of rain (or melted snow equivalent) since December 1st over these basins across far southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana leaving topsoil moisture near normal. ...Weather Outlook... The generally mild pattern is favored to persist through March and into May with equal chances for above normal or below normal precipitation. Normal rainfall is 10 to 11 inches during this 3 month period. ...River Conditions... River conditions were below to well below action stage Thursday afternoon, February 29th. ...Overall Flood Risk... Given the ongoing low river stages and given the lack of snow and ice on rivers, the overall flood risk is below normal. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 14th 2024 for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins. $$ Skip ####018004823#### FGUS71 KCTP 292149 ESFCTP PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-067- 071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-133- 011000- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 449 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 During the winter and spring, the National Weather Service issues a series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of the hydrometeorological factors that contribute to river flooding. This outlook does not address the severity or extent of future river flooding. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered low. This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West Branch, Juniata, and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper Allegheny and Monongahela Basins, including areas in Warren, McKean, Somerset and Cambria counties. The flood potential outlook for the period from Thursday, February 29th through Thursday, March 14th, 2024 is NEAR AVERAGE. Here are the hydrometeorological factors that went into this outlook: Current flooding...None. No flooding is occurring in the region at this time. Recent precipitation..Near to slightly below average. For the latest precip departures, please see www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures. Snow conditions...Below average north to near average south. Very little snow exists across central Pennsylvania as February comes to an end. The only snow cover is across the far northern tier near the New York state line, where generally an inch or less of snow is on the ground. Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain, Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin average water equivalent estimates can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov. River Ice...None. A mild February prevented much in the way of ice development. Follow river ice conditions at https://www.weather.gov/ctp/riverice. Stream flow conditions...Near to slightly above average. For current streamflow conditions, please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Real time water data is available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov. Soil moisture conditions...Much of central Pennsylvania is near normal, while the Susq Valley and points east remain above average. The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions. The latest chart can be found at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif. For more information, visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring. Ground Water...Near average. Real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate that current groundwater levels are near average. To see groundwater levels, visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw. Reservoir Conditions...Near average. Most major reservoirs across central Pennsylvania are holding storages that are near average for this time of year. Future Weather Conditions... According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, the coming two-week period looks like it should be accompanied by predominantly above average temperatures and precipitation. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the latest CPC outlooks. Summary of conditions impacting the flood potential for the period from February 29th to March 14th, 2024: Current Flooding...None. Recent Precipitation...Near to slightly below average. Snow Conditions...Below average north to near average south. River Ice...None. Stream Flow Conditions...Near to slightly above average. Soil Moisture Conditions...Much of central PA is near normal, while the Susq Valley and points east remain above average. Ground Water...Near average. Reservoir Conditions...Near average. Future Weather Conditions...Above average temperatures and precipitation. Again, the overall flood potential for the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE. The next outlook will be issued on March 14th, 2024. Additional hydrometeorological information can be found by visiting the NWS State College webpage at http://weather.gov/ctp. $$ CJE