####018003415####
FGUS71 KCAR 072034

ESFCAR

MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-142045-



WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

334 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024



...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL 

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...



This is the sixth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,

issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This 

outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one 

week period of March 7th through March 14th, 2024. 



The potential for ice jams is Above Normal across the St. John & 

Aroostook River Basins. Ice jam potential is Below Normal for 

all other river basins. 



The potential for open water flooding in all of Eastern & 

Northern Maine is Normal.



...NORTHERN BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 3" snow depth East with 

4-14" in the North Woods west of Route 11. 

WATER EQUIVALENT: Very Below Normal. Generally a Trace to 3" with

the most along and west of Route 11. 

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal 

RIVER ICE: St. John continues to break up above the Allagash with

ice jams noted. Many openings have formed downstream to Fort Kent

and Madawaska. Many fracturing points with openings from Madawaska

to Hamlin. On the Allagash the ice remains locked in place from

the confluence upstream into the North Woods. Ice is rotting and

decaying from recent snow melt with openings developing. On the

Aroostook mainly rotting/decaying ice with some openings from the

Headwaters to Ashland. Open water in Ashland to Castle Hill. 

Fracturing & partial break up in Wade. Fracturing in Washburn to 

Rum Rapids. Small openings in Presque Isle with decaying ice. Ice 

rapidly decaying above the Caribou Dam. Open water from the Dam to

above Fort Fairfield. An ice jam near Fort Fairfield exists and 

then solid ice downstream of Route 1A to Tinker Dam. Little 

Madawaska & Meduxnekeag have flushed the ice. 



...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Zero to trace in eastern areas, 

2-9" remains in the Baxter Region, North Woods and Moosehead 

Region. 16" reported at Chimney Pond (~2930ft elevation).

WATER EQUIVALENT: Trace up to 2", with higher amounts at higher

elevations. Well Below Normal.

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Piscataquis is nearly ice free except from Medway to

confluence with the Penobscot. Penobscot W. Branch is mostly open

away from the lakes. E. Branch is mostly open with ice breaking

near Grindstone thanks to increased flows from Grand Lake

Matagamon. Weak thin ice is present above dams. Mattawamkeag is

mostly ice free except for some small branches with upper

stretches of ice. 



...DOWNEAST BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Zero 

WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero 

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal 

RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains other than some chunks.



...ICE THICKNESS...

Ice thickness is extremely variable this year with recent warm

spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice

unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice 

safety visit the Maine Warden Service website 

www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html 



For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website 

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook



$$

Sinko