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FGUS71 KRLX 141529

ESFRLX

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-211530-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Charleston WV

1129 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024



...The flood potential is expected to be near normal for the next

two weeks...



The coverage area of this outlook is limited to just the states

of Ohio and Kentucky.



A normal flood potential means at least some flooding is

possible. An above normal flood potential means more widespread 

flooding is possible with some points possibly reaching moderate 

or major flood levels.



This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in 

winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to

assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on 

current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.



The factors considered when determining flood potential include:

current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for

the period, water equivalent in any snowpack, soil moisture, and 

expected precipitation.



...Precipitation...

Precipitation amounts over the past two weeks were generally

either side of normal across southeast Ohio. Northeast Kentucky,

however, observed 150 to 200 percent of normal amounts.



...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture is normal to above normal.



...Snow Cover and Snow Water Equivalent...

There is no snow cover across the area.



...Reservoir Capacity...

Reservoirs are at winter pools with ample storage available.



...River Ice...

River ice is non existent.



...Streamflow Conditions...

Streamflows are generally near normal to slightly below normal. The

Ohio River is running normal to slightly above normal for flows.



...The Hydrologic Outlook through the next two weeks...

A wet system will affect the area in the March 15 time frame that

will result in enough rainfall to elevate local streams and

creeks across southeast Ohio. However, mainstem river flooding is

not expected. Beyond that, a much drier pattern takes hold, 

occasionally interrupted by fast moving weak systems, in an 

overall seasonable to temperature regime. 



...Ensemble River Forecasts...

There is no strong signal of broad scale flood potential over the

next two weeks. 



Real-time river information and forecasts for specific locations

along rivers across eastern Kentucky and southeast Ohio, 

can be found at:



www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=rlx



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