####018005268#### FGUS71 KALY 141954 ESFALY CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095- 111-113-115-VTC003-025-212000- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 354 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Flood threat is generally near normal for the next two weeks... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered near normal due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and snowmelt. The flood threat is above normal for the Schroon River in New York where rises to near or above flood stage are possible in the outlook period. Due to a lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding. This is the sixth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 14th through the 28th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... Snow depth and snow water equivalent are both well below normal across the ALY CWA. Snowpack in the higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks has about 4 to 12 inches of depth with liquid equivalents of 1 to 2 inches with isolated pockets of 4 to 5 inches at the highest elevations. The northwestern portion of Lake George region has about 2 to 12 inches of snow depth with liquid equivalent of a trace to 2 inches. The southeastern portion of the Lake George region is snow free. Southern Vermont has regained some snowpack, though it’s been melting as well through the week, with lower elevations generally snow free and up to 2 to 8 inches at elevation. Liquid equivalent at elevation is generally 1 to 2 inches. The rest of the service area is snow free. ...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York are generally above normal to much above normal. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily much above normal with a few monitoring locations near normal. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire outlook area, generally “extremely moist”. New York State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures above freezing at all depths. ...WATER SUPPLY... New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water supply reservoir levels are above normal for this time of year. Recent rainfall and snowmelt have added to system storage, which remains well above normal. Total storage is currently at 100.3 percent of capacity, or 7.9 percent above normal capacity for this time of year. Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels have risen and are now all at or above normal for this time of year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 20 feet above normal for this time of year. Indian Lake is over 2 feet above normal for this time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater Reservoir is over 4 feet above normal, First Lake is less than a foot above normal, and Sixth Lake is right at normal. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The 6 to 10 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for March 20 to 24 call for below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Looking further out, the 8 to 14 day CPC outlooks for March 22 to 28 call for above normal temperatures and precipitation. ...SUMMARY... The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the Southern Adirondacks, as well as Southern VT/Southern Green Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood potential is considered near normal due to very wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall and snowmelt. The flood threat is above normal for the Schroon River in New York where rises to near or above flood stage are possible in the outlook period. Due to a lack of river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to ten day ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany $$ bew