####018006744#### FGUS75 KCYS 142129 ESFCYS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-WYC001-007-009-015-021-027-031- 152130- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 329 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 09/30/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Encampment River Encampment 6.5 7.5 8.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Platte River Saratoga 8.5 9.5 10.5 : 33 40 11 17 <5 <5 Sinclair 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 27 31 11 17 5 6 :Medicine Box River Hanna 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Platte River Glenrock 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Orin 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Laramie River Woods Landing 6.0 6.5 7.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Laramie 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 13 21 <5 6 <5 <5 Bosler 7.5 8.5 9.5 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Fort Laramie 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Platte River Henry 5.5 6.5 7.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mitchell 7.5 8.5 9.5 : 6 14 <5 9 <5 5 Minatare 7.5 8.5 9.5 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Bridgeport 9.5 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 09/30/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Encampment River Encampment 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.5 6.1 :North Platte River Saratoga 6.3 6.7 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.6 10.2 Sinclair 5.6 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.1 10.2 11.2 :Medicine Box River Hanna 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.2 :North Platte River Glenrock 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.5 Orin 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.9 :Laramie River Woods Landing 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.8 Laramie 4.7 5.1 6.8 7.9 8.3 9.2 9.5 Bosler 1.3 1.6 2.3 4.4 5.7 6.5 6.9 Fort Laramie 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.3 5.7 6.4 :North Platte River Henry 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.5 Mitchell 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.3 5.9 7.7 Minatare 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.6 6.8 Bridgeport 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 09/30/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Encampment River Encampment 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 :North Platte River Saratoga 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 Sinclair 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 :Medicine Box River Hanna 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 :North Platte River Glenrock 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Orin 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Laramie River Woods Landing 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 Laramie 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 Bosler 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Fort Laramie 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 :North Platte River Henry 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Mitchell 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Minatare 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Bridgeport 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/cys for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of April. $$ AJA