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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

822 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024



...Flood Potential for the next two weeks is near normal for the 

Ohio Valley...



...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal to slightly 

below for the Ohio Valley...



The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and

Pennsylvania.



PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...

0.50-2.00 inches generally fell across Ohio (50 to 150 percent of

normal). Across western Pennsylvania 2.00-5.00 inches fell 

(150-300 percent of normal). 



For more information please visit:

https://water.weather.gov/precip



SOIL MOISTURE...

Current soil moisture conditions are below normal across majority of

the basin. Western Pennsylvania soil moisture is slightly above 

normal. 



State rankings:

Ohio - Below normal

Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal 



For more information please visit: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml



USGS STREAMFLOWS... 

Current streamflows are generally near normal across the Ohio Valley  

with some pockets of below normal.



State rankings:

Ohio - Normal to slightly below normal across the north 

Western Pennsylvania - Normal 



For more information please visit:

https://watermonitor.gov



RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...

Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pool levels across the 

Ohio Valley. 



OHIO RIVER FLOWS...

Current flow along the Ohio River are above normal upstream of 

McAlpine Lock and Dam and slightly below downstream of McAlpine 

Lock and Dam. 



Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and 

below 100% are below normal. 



Pittsburgh - 170%

Huntington - 130%

Cincinnati - 130%

Louisville - 115%

Evansville -  95%

Smithland  -  90%



SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...

There is currently no snow pack across the Ohio Valley



For more information please visit:

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa 



ICE COVER...

No ice is present across the Ohio Valley.  



2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...



The two-week outlook calls for near normal rainfall potential and near 

normal flood potential. 



A weather system will bring rainfall to the Ohio Valley the end of this 

week. The highest amounts forecast are across the western basin. 

After this system, the next several days will be fairly dry. The 

chance of precipitation returns the third week of March. This is 

normal for the month of March. 





OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...

The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be slightly above normal 

over the next 14 days. 



Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above 

normal and values below 100% being below normal. 



Pittsburgh - 150%

Huntington - 115%

Cincinnati - 125%

Louisville - 125%

Evansville - 105%

Smithland  - 115%



For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs



Official forecasts can be found at:

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc



90 DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK



The flood outlook for the next 90 days acorss the Ohio Valley continue 

to favor normal to slightly below normal flood risk. 





STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...

Ohio - Minor flooding possible

Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible



For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php



ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...



Flood risk is defined as follows:

Below normal - flooding will be limited

Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations

Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible



Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National

Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring 

to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It

also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are 

based on current and forecast conditions.



The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources

outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This

can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro 



Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent

conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, 

soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future

precipitation.





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