####018002181#### FGUS74 KCRP 211440 ESFCRP PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 939 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas... The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Victoria has a flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Victoria forecast point will rise above 25.8 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid [ ] Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Guadalupe River Victoria 21.0 6.6 8.7 13.4 17.8 25.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.6 Bloomington 20.0 11.3 16.4 19.6 23.0 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.6 Coleto Creek Arnold Road Cr. 15.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 6.6 10.2 10.6 12.7 13.2 15.2 Hwy 59 Victoria 25.0 5.1 5.4 9.3 10.5 11.6 14.0 14.8 17.0 19.1 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002469#### FGUS74 KFWD 211442 ESFFWD TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161- 181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333- 337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-220242- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 942 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Sabine River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. Example: The South Fork of the Sabine River near Quinlan has a flood stage of 15 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Quinlan forecast point will rise above 17.3 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Fork Sabine River Quinlan 15.0 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.0 Cowleech Fork Sabine River Greenville 14.0 13.6 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.5 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Tawakoni 438.4 438.4 438.4 438.7 438.9 439.1 440.1 440.3 440.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fwd Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$